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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46784)	5/15/2001 7:16:18 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

ad, Applied still has a backlog of over $3B. Compare to a backlog of <$1B last downturn. Seems they could go a couple of quarters without new orders and still meet shipment goals. [I don't advocate this]. Backlog is charted in #4 geocities.com G.

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46784)	5/15/2001 7:34:02 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

... When 24 analysts combine to show a consensus estimate for next quarter of $0.23, I believe it's fair to say this evening's comments about next quarter are indeed a warning. (It should be noted that I'm one of those biased bears!) Briefing.com - by way of MSN news.moneycentral.msn.com Note my bold/italics below. Break-even to me indicates a ZERO profit, driving everyone's favorite ratio (PE) asymptotic. Either the analysts got caught by surprise, or management is deliberately undershooting. I vote the first. ST - trading - Options In addition to the ANQQK's @ 3.75 I've hung on to, I added some ANQQJ's today @ 1.5. As the CC comments are digested after the Fed glow, I think we'll see a ST dip. - Mitch Market Report -- Story Stocks (AMAT, NTAP, ANF, SAWS, TQNT) May 15, 2001 6:39:00 PM ET Tuesday After Hours Price changes vs 4pm ET levels: The Fed was the story throughout the trading day, but earnings were the story after hours. Strikingly, there was a good deal of earnings reporting from well-known companies, not the least of which was Applied Materials (AMAT 49.65 -0.24)... The chip equipment company posted fiscal Q2 earnings of $0.32 a share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus, and vs year-ago earnings of $0.53; revenues fell 12.8% to $1.91 bln from a year-ago of $2.19 bln... On its call, AMAT guided fiscal Q3 EPS to break-even, which is well shy of the current consensus estimate of $0.23... AMAT holding up fairly well, though, after hours as are its industry peers such as NVLS, KLAC, & LRCX...

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46784)	5/15/2001 9:00:03 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

<<I believe it's fair to say this evening's comments about next quarter are indeed a warning.>> Call it what you wish. In my opinion, a warning can't be issued unless in contradicts a companies own guidance. AMAT just today gave guidance for the current quarter. If AMAT knows it will have moderate to significant losses at the end of this quarter then a warning would be appropriate at that time. What we have are ignorant analysts, but it would be difficult to frame this opinion during a CC. It's much easier to just give your own guidance. So did they. And this is a good thing for those long AMAT. Now that expectations are lowered, anal-cysts will now lower estimates per AMAT's guidance. When earnings are announced next Q and AMAT surprises, even by a little, and BTB is close to or over 1.0, the stock will rally and we will all know the next up cycle has begun. That's 90 days away. Mark your calender. D