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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39678)	5/16/2001 8:13:17 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

Morning Ike SOX broke support on Tues at 600..AMAT breaks a triple bottom...and misses lowered numbers...i am short AMAT and CHKP here...long CIEN and DELL... the SPX is in an inverted Head and Shoulders here...if it cannot break out..it's going to breakdown... if we take out 1230 we could plunge to 1180...just a thought... i am mildly bullish right now..would like to see a solid pullback to buy that most imprtant dip of the year... this will set up my charts for a serious run for 6-12 months...i have NOT invested $1 buck as yet... but i'll be there hard and heavy on this retrace down.. regards oj

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39678)	5/16/2001 10:47:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

A new kind of recession!! Residential construction remains sturdy, with the number of housing starts increasing to 1.61 million in April from March, representing a 1% increase. One a year-over-year basis however, construction is slightly weaker, with starts 1% down from last year. Starts of single-family units are boosting overall starts, with an increase of nearly 7% from March. Builders are responding to sturdy demand for homes that boosted sales of new homes to a new record in April. Multifamily starts are down to 321,000 units, slightly below the average of 341,000 units so far this year. In the context of the past 18 months, April’s reading is on the weak side. While construction activity is not as strong as a year ago, it continues to exceed expectations. Housing starts increased in April from March at a stronger pace than anticipated on strength of single-family construction. Multifamily starts declined slightly, after advancing for the last three months. Strong demand for homes, as indicated by April’s record high number of new home sales, is driving the sturdy building activity in the single-family market. Even with a slight uptick in the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, housing affordability remains high enough to offset the negative influences of a weakening labor market, a plunge in consumer confidence and a faltering stock market. Additionally, more households are switching to adjustable rate mortgages, which remain below 6%. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the pace of building may pick up. Homebuilders are becoming more optimistic, with the NAHB’s index of builder expectations for home sales in the next six months rising, as are mortgage applications for purchases. However, the risks are still largely on the downside for builders. If the labor market continues to deteriorate as rapidly as it did in April, the pullback in housing demand will be sharp. This month’s housing starts numbers should help ease policymakers’ fears that the interest rate cuts to date have been ineffective.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39678)	5/16/2001 10:59:17 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

From down to up why? My morning post addressed this adequately, the murky arguments are getting washed off in face of facts I have produced earlier.. <<I see a possibility of nice decent sell and I will like to provide for that in my strategy, a collection of puts with some number of covered calls is the strategy now, we will like to see 1228 and action at that level so would 2000 Comp come in play but the whole issue is muddled with lot of contrary argument and these contrary argument have this tricky history of washing off in face of facts. I am going to play this game the way market wants in face of increased bearishness but keeping in my mind that if history has to believed the rising liquidity the shape of the 30-year bond yield curve all point to a recovery that will hit 1328 on SPX to retrace from that point will be a more credible move. In the interim play with 1213-1267 band with ease.>>