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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (4653)	5/16/2001 2:50:19 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Housing is one of the first sectors to recover from a recession as it tends to respond more rapidly to lower rates. So I'm thinking - new upcycle? Granted the down cycle was miniscule here, but it did occur. Also have to look at the fact that the housing market didn't have to face 12 and 13% mortgage rates this cycle. Additionally, the GSE money pump is much more of a factor here than in the early eighties. Still very bearish on oil though. Imo the current data doesn't nearly support current prices. I think the extended nature of this oil cycle will bring more crude and ng to market than many oil bulls are willing to admit, plus, I think world wide industrial production numbers will remain very weak through the summer and fall thus, continuing to negatively impact worldwide crude demand. IMO what is going on here is that housing is leading us out recession and is thus early cycle this time. Oil is late cycle and will fall until supply and demand get back in sync when the whole world economy troughs - which is still MONTHS away, AND Non opec production is cut back. Not lookin' for $10 oil this cycle though.