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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1162)	5/17/2001 5:38:25 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Some more-mixed-messages on the economic front - but, probably a net positive on the prospects for a turnaround on the US economy: Leading economic indicators rise in April NEW YORK (AP) — An important gauge of future economic activity rose 0.1% in April, gaining after two consecutive monthly declines and suggesting that the U.S. economy may be starting to recover. The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose to 108.7 last month after slipping a revised 0.2% in March and 0.2% in February. The improvement, which met economists' forecasts, reflects the positive effect of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts. Economists said the increase — although it was small — is a sign that the economy may be beginning to stabilize after months of decline. "Perhaps we can see the light of economic recovery at the end of the tunnel," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo. But they also were cautious. Mark Vitner, of First Union, said, "It really doesn't make me optimistic about the near-term outlook." "I still think we're in for a few more months of pain," he said. The April increase was only the second in the last seven months. The cumulative change in the index over the past six months was a 1.3% decline. Three consecutive declines in the index traditionally have been considered a sign that the economy is headed into recession. In an attempt to stave off a recession, the Fed has slashed interest rates five times this year, on each occasion by a half percentage point. The most recent rate cut came Tuesday. In a separate report Thursday, the Labor Department said initial applications for jobless benefits fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000 for the week ending May 12. "The stock market has been moving ahead, supporting the argument that the economy is in the process of stabilizing, even though some sectors, such as technology, are in the dog house," Wells Fargo's Sohn said. The Conference Board said three of 10 components that make up the leading indicators index rose last month: interest rate spread, money supply and stock prices. The negative contributors were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, vendor performance, building permits, index of consumer expectations and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and materials. The group's index of coincident indicators, which measures current economic activity, reflected the economy's slow pace, holding steady at 116.5. The index of lagging indicators, which reflect changes that have already occurred, fell 0.3% to 106.7. The indexes use a base of 100 established in 1996 and are used as a barometer of overall economic trends. - And here's one for the bear view......... Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area contracted for a sixth straight month in May- quote.bloomberg.com