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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53055)	5/16/2001 7:05:14 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Mindmeld: of the 80B$ capital being spent this year, what fraction do you think is going towards gear? What fraction is going towards outside plant? What fraction towards traditional voice infrastructure and what towards data communications? (I know the lines here are blurring, but it's good to think this way) Another way to look at it is that the collective of their suppliers should expect to see revenue run rates at 6.5% below Y2000 rates. Which isn't good either for a group that is trying to grow by 30% a year. Either you're going to see some serious lunch-of-someone-else-eating or a bit of a correction in prices. Each of them is priced as though they will win increased business YoY. So the collective set of prices is too high. Thus, shorting a revenue weighted basket of the gear makers looks to be a winning strategy. What do you think? John.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53055)	5/16/2001 9:25:09 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 77400

<<That's $80B this year alone. With zero growth in expenditures over the next 3 years, that's still $320B that will be spent...and that's just service providers. Then you need to throw in Enterprise, Small Medium Business, and Consumer markets. That means the total pie is alot larger. >> But M, it's a tend in DECLINE. That's how we got here in the first place! <<With zero growth in expenditures over the next 3 years, >> what if csco experiences zero growth over the next three years? sound good?