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To: S100 who wrote (99291)	5/16/2001 7:36:08 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

S100: Chuckle. Note this: <<Nevertheless, while it may turn out a close run thing, CDMA2000 is unlikely, in the end to supplant UMTS. UMTS was designed as an evolutionary step from GSM. There are upwards of 500m GSM subscribers worldwide. By comparison, there were only some 80m CDMA subscribers at the end of last year. The conclusion must be that market forces alone will ensure that UMTS will in time become the 3G world standard. But it will take significantly longer than originally envisaged and the effect of those huge 3G licence payments on the industry will be significant. >> Whatever happened to the absolute certainly that WCDMA (laughingly called UMTS) would be adopted ipso facto in 80% plus of the world? Hmmmmmm? The crumbling of that absurd assumption has begun, crack by crack. And China is a major crack. India another. Then in the US there is Nextel And in Latin America the silence is deafening as to what path Bell South will take, and TDMA more generally. (Only Western Europe behind its moat is "secure" for GPRS/UMTS, so no CDMA 2000 is possible in current spectrum, i.e. no open market competion possible - in clear violation of the spirit if not the letter of WTO -- BTW where is the US Trade Rep in this????? ) Best. Chaz

To: S100 who wrote (99291)	5/16/2001 10:39:33 PM
From: Lipko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

For any who really care - are the Euros and DoCoMo planning to build on top of WCDMA for 4G or are they planning to rip out 3G and start all over? Who is going to pay for it? Will Nokia even be in the game at that time? By the way, did the rest of the world even realize that in the space of only five or six months, the first stage Unicom CDMA buildout has gone from about 10M to 15.2M and that the equipment vendors said yesterday the 15.2 would be ready by early 2002. They are raring to go - all they need are the contracts and in a matter of months (read - not years), CDMA will be up and ready. I'm beginning to get the impression that Unicom will reach 50M a lot sooner than is publicly stated. Vendor agitation for WCDMA migration towards CDMA ought to start by Autumn as they realize how rapidly the latter systems can be built. I certainly am feeling much better, thank you. John