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To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	5/17/2001 9:35:48 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Hi, CB: you got yourself quite a job ;. Re Wehrmacht: the plans to get it to the 1939 size (in terms of men under arms, divisions, every single fact) were drawn up in highest possible secrecy somewhere in early twenties. Hitler just needed to give it the political green light - "go ahead, make my day". Who financed it? After 1933 I dare to say it was Germany on its own. However, by 1939 it was clear, that due to extraordinary effort of remilitarisation, the Reich was bankrupt - if not today, then in 24 hours -. But in 24 hours Poland was invaded ("ab 5:45AM wird zurückgeschossen") and ... and so on (g). I will just mention cheddar cheese rations and CARE flour that fed me as a kid (Im born 1948). This is my early US experience - believe me it's positive and lasting. Keep us posted, will you. dj

To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	5/17/2001 10:43:21 AM
From: jjetstream	Respond to of 74559

Interesting read CB, I look forward to your further research....

To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	5/17/2001 11:21:57 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi CB, 20-30 books would take me about 5-8 years to work through. I would certainly be interested in your conclusions regarding the Big One in 1929. I have, so far, taken the lazier approach and used the following explanation ... <<The world depends on one great big untested construct of systems, sub-systems, components, sub-components, all linked, all functioning, each designed for its own little piece of the universe, for its own era, with its designed in but not transparent tolerances. This is what we are all depending on. Call it Space Ship Wall Street, and get on for a ride. ... the world is connected, alive, complicated, unpredictable, and always on the verge of undiscovered disasters. We are at a critical juncture now, where we must make a judgment on risk vs. reward, based on all that we have learned, starting with the physical laws, mathematical constructs, probabilities, thermodynamics, random motion, and psychology.>> first note here ... Message 15499316 and of course, the crowds back then, as now, worked the machine beyond its aggregate tolerance, without understanding that (virtual or real) machines can fail. Just as a $6 faulty O-ring can cause a space shuttle to blow up, the financial system is only as strong as its weakest link. Each failure triggers the next failure, until the whole system is kaput. As DJ has just noted and I had readily admitted in the past, we lack imagination. What I lack in imagination, I compensate with suspicion and healthy fear. The system we got now simply has too many links, and weak ones at that. This explanation can be used to understand Japan as well. Chugs, Jay

To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	5/17/2001 9:58:06 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 74559

Speaking of 1929, from a fellow bear. users.dircon.co.uk

To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	5/17/2001 10:08:43 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Cobalt, read Derivatives, The Wild Beasts of Finance - by Alfred Steinherr. You will like it a lot. Could be the dark horse in this whole game. It is a lot like all that money loaned overseas in 1929. Very scary to read and shows how out of control the whole financial system is at present. So I do see some similar situations to 1929 due to this exposure by all the financial institutions. West

To: Ilaine who wrote (3695)	9/21/2003 3:34:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello CB, <<You asked me before why I am researching the Great Crash of 1929, and the Great Depression of 1930>> I write you in connection with the current controversy regarding dissipation, evaporation, redistribution and depressions. Following on this earlier response Message 15813707 <<May 17th, 2001 ... The world depends on one great big untested construct of systems, sub-systems, components, sub-components, all linked, all functioning, each designed for its own little piece of the universe, for its own era, with its designed in but not transparent tolerances. This is what we are all depending on. Call it Space Ship Wall Street, and get on for a ride. ... the world is connected, alive, complicated, unpredictable, and always on the verge of undiscovered disasters. We are at a critical juncture now, where we must make a judgment on risk vs. reward, based on all that we have learned, starting with the physical laws, mathematical constructs, probabilities, thermodynamics, random motion, and psychology. first note here ... Message 15499316 and of course, the crowds back then, as now, worked the machine beyond its aggregate tolerance, without understanding that (virtual or real) machines can fail. Just as a $6 faulty O-ring can cause a space shuttle to blow up, the financial system is only as strong as its weakest link. Each failure triggers the next failure, until the whole system is kaput. As DJ has just noted and I had readily admitted in the past, we lack imagination. What I lack in imagination, I compensate with suspicion and healthy fear. The system we got now simply has too many links, and weak ones at that.>> ... we are now at this point ... Message 19324814 Message 19326254 ... progressing nicely, following a fatal trajectory, making way towards TeoTwawKi. ... and even democracies are readying for war against democracies Message 19326793 ... even as Haim is musing about Final Solutions. Chugs, Jay