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To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/17/2001 4:41:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 116753

Hutch, I agree with your valuation call on the majors. That gap up needs to be filled. However, gold is at critical levels here. If it bounces up another $5+ then shorts will get killed imho. A break of 278-280 should cause a run to 300+. Also the short interest in NEM is rather large. Short squeezes often run beyond what is considered "rational". I'm tempted to short NEM as a hedge against my other long positions, but I'm going to wait a little longer to see what gold does. The outstanding option interest does have me a little concerned (overly bullish). NEM should pullback to 18-20 by June expiration if you believe the options. Then again, option analysis should have had us at 20 and not 23 by tomorrow. I'd like to buy puts on NEM vs shorting but the volatility premium is too rich for my blood.

To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/17/2001 4:45:42 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116753

Agree on possible overvaluation of majors. Although I hated to it, sold Rydex Precious Metals today. That fund tracks the XAU pretty closely. But holding on to the more diversified Fidelity Gold Fund.

To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/17/2001 4:52:42 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

What are these "great signs of over valuation"? Is it related in any way to history?

To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/17/2001 5:07:10 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116753

To:just_call_me_ike who wrote (68077) From: Bob Johnson Saturday, Apr 21, 2001 10:41 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69352 > why a 50 % move ? Historical AU/XAU ratio = 3.82 If gold can approach $300 in the next 12 months, and stock can return to historical relative levels, then XAU might go to 75-80ish, up 50% ?? 273.50 / 3.82 = 71.6

To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/17/2001 8:14:13 PM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

<<By Friday, it's over.>> Great post, so much confidence based on past practice and charts, finally gold is nothing but predictable. BTW, since the new economy commodities are so easy to multiply that within a year their value of inventories rose from negative to far exceeding inventories of CB's gold holdings which were built over generations I rather stick to NEM, FN, PDG for the long term.

To: Zardoz who wrote (69348)	5/19/2001 3:46:55 PM
From: Gord Bolton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Hutch, you are soo quiet. What is that strange look on your face. Did someone give you a delta wedgey or are the shorts feeling a little tight. AngloGold's Godsell new World Gold Council chairman 5/18/2001 9:59:00 AM LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - Bobby Godsell, chairman and chief executive of world number one gold mining company AngloGold (ANGJ) was on Friday appointed chairman of the World Gold Council (WGC). At the WGC's annual meeting, members voted to appoint Godsell chairman in place of outgoing chairman John Willson of Canadian producer Placer Dome (PDG) . The WGC is an association of gold mining companies worldwide devoted to the promotion of gold. It is funded by its members who make annual contributions proportionate to their output and this year doubled its budget to $55 million. Godsell, 48, assumed his position at AngloGold's helm in December last year and has been with the South African miner for 26 years. He has often said the bullion mining industry must modernise to lure back investors and this is a primary goal of the WGC. "The industry is going through very tough times. It is surrounded by negative perceptions -- from investors and its own community," he told Reuters. "The WGC has made a huge difference to the marketing of gold especially in Asia and India...I'm keen to bring the energy and trends around gold that you find in the East over to the West," he added. Godsell said one of his specific goals during the two-year term as chairman would be to continue a dialogue with international organisations such as the IMF to encourage them to allow countries to pay back debts in gold. "At the moment, the universal currency is the U.S. dollar, but that seems unfair because none of these countries makes U.S. dollars but they all make gold," he said. "I'm not calling for a return to the gold standard, but I'm saying gold does have a role to play as a store of value." Gold's price has been falling for the past 20 years and in Friday afternoon trade was quoted around $273 a troy ounce in Europe. South Africa's AngloGold, which has annual output of seven million ounces, has made acquisitions in the rest of Africa, Australia and the Americas, and Godsell has said the company would "participate vigorously" in a global industry consolidation. Rtr 09:59 05-18-01 Copyright 2001, Reuters News Service www2.marketwatch.com;