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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fingolfen who wrote (135405)	5/17/2001 7:56:06 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>>If Intel were going directly to 193nm lithography this would be more or less correct. But Intel will be launching using PSM (actually the launch will be with 193nm lithography, with PSM ramp) technology because of the SVGI delays, then going to 193nm lithography with the beginning of the 300mm ramp in H2 2002.<< >Where'd you get that information about Intel and 193nm? It doesn't seem to jive with what I'm hearing in the Intel press releases...< SVGI claims at least 3-4 months delay. Switching over to PSM will not be easy or quick. It will probably take 5 months to validate the process, plus another 3 months to get volume production. This would not make sense with only a 3-4 month delay on 193nm lithography. >>0.10-micron will not be shippable until at least Q4 2003.<< >I disagree... even at the worst cast, Intel has a 2 year development cycle... that would put the 0.10 micron initial product release in late Q2 2003... six months ahead of your assertion. What do you base your Q4 number on???< Intel launched the 0.18-micron process with mobile P-II in June/July 1999, and will launch the 0.13-micron process in June/July 2001, this is two years. If you are correct about previous generations taking only 18 months, this represents a slowdown of six months versus the previous generation. The is reasonable therefore to anticipate that the move to 0.10-micron will take at least two years, possibly even 30 months. My guess is early Q4 2003 at the earliest for first volume shipment of 0.10-micron parts.