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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (103077)	5/17/2001 9:18:51 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 436258

Haim, Efficiency alone means nothing. You have to look at total costs including the capital costs -- other lifecycle cost issues as well and the characteristics of the load you are trying to serve. (Residential customers tend to have very poor load factors -- you can't approach those efficiencies for such highly peaked loads -- fuel cells won't do regulation (load following).) Fuel cells will never be able to compete with a nat gas fired combined cycle plant -- the capital cost for fuel cells is at best projected to be 4x that for combined cycles . Fuel cells won't compete directly with central station power for the foreseeable future. I know the efficiency of these technologies. It's my job -- I work in resource planning for a utility ... Even I am attracted to the idea of decentralized power -- who wouldn't like to unplug and have their own source -- thing is with fuel cells of the kind that would serve local needs (not central station power) you would need distribution infrastructure for the fuel -- natural gas -- whatever -- if it is natural gas this imposes not only additional demand, but demand that is all year long and would peak in the summer and winter -- expanding the gas distribution infrastructure for wide residential application is a hurdle that will never be overcome. it just doesn't make economic sense. Also, the purchaser would give up fuel diversity that one gets by being attached to the grid where there are mutliple types of fuel sources being applied. I think the niche for fuel cells is where there is an industrial need (rather constant demand roudn the clock) for high reliability, or power quality and the process heat can be recovered for some industrial process -- of course fuel cells in this app would have to compete with conventional co-gen projects. Abundant local natural gas or methane is also a plus ... PS I am glad you think running combined cycle plants is easy technology. We have a job for you ... <vbg>