Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53124)	5/18/2001 10:10:36 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

I met some people from one of the major studios about 15 years ago. They were interested in digital distribution back then because of the costs of moving cans of film around. One of those costs was - miss a day's showing and lose a day's revenue. There is a start-up I am aware of whose major product is a compression algorithim for video and the hardware to use it. They have been doing digital distribution for some of the biggies, including Disney, on a trial basis. They distributed a movie to Cannes Film Festival last year on digital satellite. This is a coming thing and I am convinced of the cost savings that would result. You may also have seen news on the loss of historic film footage due to deterioration. This could be eliminiated.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53124)	5/18/2001 10:17:38 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

I never said it wouldn't happen -- be more clear -- there's a difference between something happening and being a commercial success. My comments were meant to imply that it won't be a commercial success for a number of years -- I don't rule out the possibility that evenetually it may be -- ain't gonna be soon enough for people who are buying CSCO at these levels

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53124)	5/18/2001 11:12:24 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

mindmeld: Digital distribution impact on CSCO Ok... Sure it's a thriving industry. But before touting too much of it as justification for reinflating the CSCO air mattress, maybe you should do some math. The absolute maximum CSCO could book in revenue would be if they attracted 99.9% of the current costs of distribution being displaced. But it's more likely they will be able to take in some 15% of 15% of 15% of the cost by the time everyone in the food chain gets their palm appropriately greased for taking "some of the issues" off the table. Now, $30 at a PE of 20 means $1.50 EPS @ 15% net margin = $10.00 revenue/share = $75 B$/year or somewhere just shy of 4x current revenues. Which isn't going to happen in 2002. [EDIT: 75 B$ is 15% of 15% of 15% of 22 Trillion dollars] I can understand purchasing CSCO on a position trade with tight stops, profiting from momentum and a momentary "sproing" away from $20 that is growing more likely to happen with gusto. But a long [EDIT: LTBH] position? Foolishness. IMHO.