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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46953)	5/18/2001 11:16:47 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AD, I am expecting a Friday rally. I would be careful here. You are making a big bet at a time when sentiment seems to have shifted especially with the dow clearing 11k easily earlier in the week. I am expecting new nasdaq highs above 2200 shortly. Remember naz was 2900 in january. If it goes above 2250 like the dow went above 11k, I hope you will be as nimble as you usually are. Mike

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46953)	5/18/2001 11:23:39 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

All the news I see is bad, but the prices are holding and rising based on the belief that it all will improve sometime toward the end of the year. I don't think anyone has a clue and this is reflected in the Fed's willingness to toss off 1/2 % reductions, monthly. If things really do improve, I don't believe it will be to the growth levels of the recent past. If things don't improve in the next six months, I can see the improvement mantra extended another 6. In any case, while I tend to believe that this is a bear trap, I concede that market sentiment is very positive in light of the business situation. Long term shorts may be rewarded, but close stop losses will probably make your play short and disappointing. I think a short play needs to wait until the market starts believeing that business conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months, not improve in 6.

To: advocatedevil who wrote (46953)	5/18/2001 11:46:28 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AD, Could you give some indication of what % of your total investable capital is now short AMAT and what the balance of your investment capital allocation looks like in general terms? I am trying to ascertain how significant a bet you are placing on AMAT. My personal belief is that your present AMAT position can be rewarding but only if you are willing to relax some of the tight stops that you have set in the past. Your current scale up selling strategy will succeed in capturing the top of the nearby trading range only if you will allow it enough breathing room to work but this is very difficult to do, and could be foolhardy, if you have too much of your capital at risk in the position.