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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (589)	5/18/2001 5:55:39 PM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

Don, Thanks for the work. And especially for your summary post on earning vs. price. Will

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (589)	5/18/2001 6:07:03 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

It was a positive week for the Group, SOX-X and NASDAQ. The Group is up 5 percent, the SOX-X up 7 percent and the NASDAQ up 4 percent. 5/11/01 5/18/01 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PE/G IMSC 13.40 20.95 56 1.00 21 20 1.05 SMTL 10.76 12.88 20 0.83 16 21 0.75 ASYT 17.83 20.90 17 0.79 26 25 1.06 NVLS 49.09 54.55 11 1.72 32 25 1.27 TER 38.73 42.70 10 1.19 36 23 1.56 NANO 23.84 26.11 10 0.83 31 25 1.26 KLAC 50.83 55.46 9 1.02 54 25 2.17 WFR 7.56 8.20 8 -1.50 20 KLIC 15.25 16.45 8 0.30 55 20 2.74 FSII 10.60 11.41 8 0.45 25 23 1.13 VECO 49.85 53.43 7 2.63 20 25 0.81 AMAT 51.71 55.00 6 1.17 47 25 1.86 SFAM 5.58 5.87 5 -1.44 18 PHTN 27.80 29.00 4 0.51 57 25 2.27 LRCX 29.94 31.10 4 0.48 65 21 3.16 HELX 27.40 28.37 4 0.98 29 25 1.16 ASML 25.71 26.59 3 0.99 27 25 1.09 PRIA 17.60 18.16 3 0.76 24 30 0.80 SVGI 33.06 34.09 3 -0.60 21 ATMI 24.80 25.57 3 1.52 17 20 0.84 COHU 18.75 19.16 2 1.00 19 18 1.06 CYMI 31.43 32.05 2 1.40 23 28 0.83 CMOS 23.63 24.06 2 0.39 62 21 3.01 UTEK 22.24 22.47 1 1.19 19 25 0.76 MTSN 16.43 16.51 0 0.75 22 25 0.88 LTXX 28.10 28.15 0 0.31 91 20 4.54 BRKS 54.58 53.95 -1 1.47 37 25 1.47 EGLS 16.46 16.10 -2 0.17 95 22 4.30 PLAB 27.60 26.70 -3 1.60 17 23 0.73 DPMI 53.44 50.00 -6 2.47 20 22 0.91 TGAL 2.97 2.75 -7 0 TOTALS 826.97 868.69 5 24.38 36 SOX-X 616.78 657.43 7 COMPQX2107.43 2198.88 4

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (589)	5/18/2001 6:44:17 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

A -1 correlation! That's excellent, Donald. And most folks who pay attention to the sector on SI are psychologically predisposed quite similar to the analysts. This is precisely why I feel that while the idea behind the 'Blood on the streets' thread is absolutely on target, individual investors are loath to actually act on such a truism. Investors 'know' that the time to back up the truck is when the outlook is the worst. However, they analyze the environment 'rationally', express views strikingly similar to the analysts' (and thus would likely generate similar dismal estimates), and, for the vast majority of investors, shy away from the sector. And, as a consequence, most investors miss the most powerful part of the up cycle rally (* see below). We're probably in that stage of the cycle right now. As usual Donald, your hard work and perseverance are truly appreciated. ----------------------- *an example of just how much stocks in this sector can go up when the cycle turns, this was recently posted on the Klic thread: >>>(A)n average return (by Klic) of the four previous cycles (is) 642%, the range of the four was from 549-706%.....(T)he average length of time it took to top out was 16.5 months, the shortest cycle length was 14 months, while the longest was 21 months. Using averages only, we're looking at a price of 66.6 and April 15, 2002, for our tops....Historically, the movement upwards increases exponentially as we near the top date... <<< messages.yahoo.com