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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (596)	5/18/2001 7:34:24 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95761

Scott, Yes, I believe we are in the "up cycle" - no question about it. In hindsight, it is pretty clear that it started on 11/30/00. With the Fed dramatically lowering interest rates these past months, all the money on the sidelines waiting for the "right time" to get into the market, and the coming tax reduction, we are somewhere in the middle of the up cycle. How long it lasts, and when it peaks, are questions yet to be answered. In general, from the up cycle point of view, I think the shape of cycle will be somewhat like the cycle starting on 10/8/98. When you look at all the semi-equips in the group, many of them went up very rapidly during the first 3 to 4 months, then many of them(but not all) went in a "sideways" fashion for quite a few months until later in 1999 when all the stocks started the ascent to the "blowoff" in March 2000. When I have some time, I may go back to look at the shape of the curve beginning in October 1998 and compare it to the period from November 2000 to the present. It might be interesting to see how close the 2 periods compare. Of more interest, however, is what is the curve going to look like going forward. We are going to have the BtB number for the month of April next week. The number is bound to be quite low, but how low? Is it going to be better than March? I don't know, but I am hoping that the April number will show some improvement over the March number. If not, I feel pretty confident that May will be the turn around month. Once the BtB number starts to increase, companies and analysts will start, in a small way at first, the process of increasing the earnings estimates that are now still being decreased on a weekly basis. Then we will get into the latter part of the "up cycle". As for me, I am in this market with "both feet". I may not make all the right choices going forward, but I don't care if I make a few mistakes as long as we are in the up cycle. Going long in this environment is usually not fatal. There will be some down weeks going forward, but on balance, the overall environment is "investor friendly".<gg> Don