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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7016)	5/20/2001 8:22:10 PM
From: 10K a day	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

>> no letup in IT spending. >> ?? Only the price of technology falling Daily....

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7016)	5/21/2001 7:09:29 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

>> I personally think the energy "crisis" is a side show to the Information age. << The information age is precisely what is driving up the demand for energy. >> Demand has not increased in strep with prices. << Supply has not increased with demand. >> Prices are being manipulated << By whom and to what end? >> Natural gas produced in the Gulf at $4 is selling for $13 at the California border, and $5 at the New York border. << There is a shortage in CA, so they have to pay up. It's all supply and demand. >> It costs $6 to find and produce a barrel of crude. $6. Huge new fields are being discovered and developed. There is no natural shortage of supply at the moment. << 1. It always takes time to bring on new supply 2. With commodities it doesn't all come out of the ground at the same price. Sure, all the easy oil gets pumped first. Other deposits need higher prices to justify development. >> Meanwhile the New Economy is populated by triple-digit growers, and shows no signs of a letup in secular growth << Not necessarily a bad thing for commodities! Bill, no one will argue that technology continually marches forward. My main argument is that commodities can do well no matter what the economic evironment going forward. There are dislocations in supply/demand popping up. Now on the other hand, your high priced tech stocks can do well only under one rosy scenario. The economy has to turn around along with low inflation. That is a tall order considering how much moolah Greenspam is printing these days. >> Jack Welch is "digitizing" General Electric as fast as he can << Maybe that should worry us. That kind of mentality, spend at all cost as fast as we can is what led to the overinvestment and supply glut we are facing right now. >> But to think that the party has moved on from IT now, is like thinking the market for railroad equipment had peaked in 1850. << Hold on Bill. I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying the information age is going to come to a grinding halt. What I am saying is that it doesn't have to translate into higher stock prices! It's entirely possible that new whizbang technology will emerge, but pricing could kill profits. >> Coal? I lived through the energy crises of 1974 and 1979. Those were real crises with embargoes and international political implications. This energy "crisis" is a domestic problem with domestic solutions << Are you implying that we are insulated from anything to do with the middle east? That we can become isolationists and supply all of our energy needs on our own? While fuel economy is at 20 year lows? All while pacifying the environmentalist wackos out there? Nice try.