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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JPR who wrote (11458)5/22/2001 8:32:12 AM
From: JPR  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12475
 
Gas Gains Vs Gas Pains
Pakistan salivating at the prospects of transiting gas. For Pakistan it is gas gains and for India it is gas pains -JPR

dawn.com
KARACHI, May 21: Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Usman Aminuddin has said Pakistan is committed to an Iran-India gas pipeline to run through Pakistan territory and it would provide all required security to the project.

"We have provided full guarantee to the government of Iran. We said that whatever concern India has, we will address it," he said in an interview with the Iranian News Agency (Irna) in Dubai.

JPR Notes:
There is no way that any power or force on earth can give full protection to any facility in any country. That being said, it is virtually impossible to have a pipeline run its length in an enemy territory. It is like asking the fox watch over the hens. It is an idiotic idea and that is why India would not consider it.
Concerns:
· India and Iran at the mercy of a presently unfriendly country
· Pakistan is known for its back-stabbing - Kargil
· Pakistan will not be able to separate business obligations from whatever that ails them
· Hindu /Sunni / Shia equation / divide in Pakistan is unhealthy
· The divide guarantees sabotage by Shia or Sunni in pakistan in case of conflict.
· Contamination of gas with noxious substances on the pakistani side
· In case of war, the pipeline is the first target by pakistan or terrorists
· Economic disruption, inconvenience, mortality and morbidity for India in case of sabotage

Let pakistan and Iran deposit $1 billion each in a bank in a neutral country as a guarantee for good behavior and deposit monies in India equal to one year worth of gas supply to India. Then India can give a thought. On second thought, it is not worth the trouble. let us have a sea route via international waters