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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (47091)	5/22/2001 1:12:27 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

"No one expects fundamentals for the equipment companies to improve anytime soon." Ian, That is true, but many folks have chosen to ignore the pessimism already. All i am saying that we might have a period where other groups within tech have their day while amat consolidates gains. My core holdings will not be disturbed in any case, its just the stock on the edges that i play with. As far as 30 years, the cloud i see is the demographic one---the baby boomer generation pulling money out of the market to live on and perhaps to help our kids with day to day stuff. My impression is that the next generation is often in over their heads and will need some of our cash. Thats when multiples may return to the norm. I believe we are safe for ten years at least. mike

To: Ian@SI who wrote (47091)	5/22/2001 1:14:04 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, re >I do plan to live for about another 30 years< Good! I hope you plan to keep posting here that long. Of course by then we'll all know what everyone will say ahead of his posting. Maybe we can just assign numbers to our various responses then. <G> Also, I'll have 36 years of SEMI history to chart at the end of that period. Gottfried :)

To: Ian@SI who wrote (47091)	5/22/2001 6:07:37 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "No one expects fundamentals for the equipment companies to improve anytime soon." So the stocks have almost doubled from the bottom because it is "the point of maximum pessimism" and the above quote is true!? Consider that this may be "the point of maximum complacency" because everyone is counting on " fundamentals for the equipment companies to improve...soon." You have heard the mantras, "it got so bad, so fast, it has to improve" and "the fed will not let it get any worse." Maximum pessimism is "it got so bad, so fast, we are doomed; massive bankruptcies are ahead and the fed is just pushing on a string."