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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (47163)5/23/2001 12:57:54 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
I guesstimate that the actual level of billings as opposed to the 3 month moving average was under $1B for the month of April.

Backlog is probably no longer maintaining the billings number at an artificially high level. Thus for those that only look at the ration of Book to Bill, subsequent ratios should start improving, even if business conditions don't.

FWIW,
Ian.



To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (47163)5/23/2001 2:39:21 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
We are even closer to the bottom in the cycle than we were last month

That's funny. I was just thinking that we are closer to the top of this upcycle. <G>



To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (47163)5/23/2001 8:14:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
How close we are to the bottom is not important. What is important is how long we stay at the bottom. The V scenario has been replaced by the U, an extended U. I do not believe the risk/reward relationship for AMAT supports current prices if the U scenario holds.

Unlike most on the Street, I am not worried about missing the up cycle. I am concerned that the real business down cycle is, as everyone likes to say, in the 3rd inning.


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