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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/23/2001 5:01:31 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

pretty amazing -- somebody said CFSB dowgraded NEM shortly before they purchased. It's true: biz.yahoo.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/23/2001 5:02:29 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, you obviously ignore Galvin (Master Delusion Specialist and Crystal Ball reader ) who had such a nice story to tell. Everything is just dandy rosy Haim

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/23/2001 5:29:47 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, Don't disagree with your book value target on the equipment manufacturers. I'm not sure whether I agree with your statement with the world "drowning" in semiconductor capacity. I've worked for several semi companies, and spent a large part of my 20 yr career involved with shutting down semiconductor plants. There have been loads and loads of shut downs and I know of more happening in the future. Are you sure your figures are correct?... 2500% over capacity??? I seriously doubt it. Sounds as if the nutcases at the top will screw up yet again. I fully expect the downturn on semi's (not even happening yet) to be way over done. AND within a short time frame (a year or two) there will be another severe shortage of semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Everything I see tells me this is exactly what will happen... as it always has. There should be some really good opportunities to make a lot of money. I did OK in the past, but I going to see if I can really cash in big time on this next 5 yr manoeuvre on the semis (or chippies as AA likes to call them. -g-). I include a possible devastation on Wall St in the scenario too. regards, pearly.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/23/2001 5:43:53 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz: Excellent comments. Only blind mo-mo fund managers or unthinking sheep could buy the semi equipment stocks under the current insane circumstances. Like many other "falls-from-grace" that we have openly discussed on this thread well before actual consumating events, a complete rout of these stocks is a given. The only problem I have with some of them at the moment is keeping the saliva in check. That said, I have no intention nor interest in examining the bicuspids of these delightful horses. (g) Best, Earlie

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/23/2001 7:37:37 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

China has move agressively into semi manufacturing in at least the last decade. With the low labor cost, virtually everything is made in China now. Semi capacity outside of China is now virtually excess higher labor cost manufactuirng capacity. Just flip to the back of any of one's electronic gaget and see the "made in china" label.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/24/2001 11:44:40 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i emailed the k-man and asked him about gold. he said he was selling his and it was 'almost time to go short'. i noted corner bay had a nice finish yesterday and paas is rebounding... meridian has been fairly weak. i repurchased some yesterday.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104325)	5/24/2001 12:23:17 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

lease rates up a sizable fraction the same day someone drops some supply into the spot market -- suppose there is there a direct connection there? I think it is also interesting in looking at the lease rate charts -- spread between different rates coming closer together. On the longer term charts -- the activity near this recent rise has been one tied to a flat, higher base with declining volatility -- during the last spike there was a steady rise toward the spike which occured almost simultaneous to the metal spiking --- lots of "technical" differences that are interesting