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To: maceng2 who wrote (104336)	5/23/2001 5:56:40 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

PB: I would be careful, as the end markets for semis have gone through a fundamental change that none of us have witnessed in the past, which is complete saturation of end markets. We will require some new applications before this situation is resolved. Cellular phones and PCs, the major end markets for semis during the past two decades, aren't going to turn this one around. Best, Earlie

To: maceng2 who wrote (104336)	5/24/2001 4:59:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

the 2500% is the INCREASE in total semi capacity over the past decade...some of it was certainly justified. but the splurge of the latest up cycle really took the cake...incredible capacity additions have taken place just in the past two years. most of that is now idle...the occasional glimpses one gets from Taiwanese and other Asian manufacturers are anything but encouraging. note also that the semi equipment book-to-bill at 0.42 is at a record low (and the 'analysts' told us LAST time already that it couldn't get worse). of course there will be a great opportunity to make money on the long side somewhere down the road (in the sense of investing, not trading)...but we're far from there.