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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47181)	5/24/2001 9:35:14 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Here is a question of valuations. According to to SEMI, 2001 will drop by 27%, 2002 will be flat at around +3%, and 2003 increase by 22%. Now we all know that these guys are not any good at forecasting, but then again neither is anyone else and SEMI is as knowledgeable as anyone. So let's run with these numbers. Crunching them in my cheapo calculator says that in 2003, the shippings will be only 92% of 2000 (0.73x1.03x1.22=0.917). Given that and given that another peak may be on the horizons then, I wonder if the smicaps and the chips make better position trades for now than long term investments. ST