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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (47202)	5/24/2001 9:45:29 AM
From: willcousa	Respond to of 70976

My view is that the equips are so volitile that they are always position trades. I think Tito would agree. The giants in the business are also good long term investments. I do some of both. FWIW

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (47202)	5/24/2001 9:50:00 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Here is a question of questions: Believe SEMI whatsoever? Yeah right. The only aspect of SEMI's prognostications worth pondering is their complete inability to...prognosticate. Nine months ago they were predicting 20%+ growth for the same periods you note. If your response is, 'Yes, but who could have foreseen.....', that's precisely the point: nobody can foresee developments. Not SEMI, not anyone. So the fact that SEMI cannot create a crystal ball any better than a circus sideshow, the rest of your question is moot...since its premise does not withstand the slightest scrutiny. All I know is that right now most of the 'giants in the business' are significantly overvalued (by at least one measure) whereas the mid- and smaller cap equips are trading at cycle bottom valuations. These 'non-giants' are currently excellent long term investments.