To: rudedog who wrote (165537 ) 5/24/2001 4:54:25 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 176387 Studies Contradict Doom-and-Gloom E-Commerce Outlook By Tim McDonald, www.NewsFactor.com Thursday May 24 01:37 PM EDT <<On Wednesday, the same day that high-tech kingpin Bill Gates (news - web sites) proclaimed that the technology boom is only just beginning, a flurry of new studies were released that back up his claim. Flying in the face of dot-com gloom and doom, the surveys paint not just a rosy future for e-commerce but an explosive one. The Internet appliance market -- non-PC devices that connect to the Internet -- will soar to 20 million units by 2005, and the managed security market will leap from US$140 million in 2000 to $1.7 billion, two separate studies predicted. Overall, said another, global e-commerce will explode to $5 trillion by 2005. "With the dot-com crash and U.S. economic doldrums so much in the news, it's easy to lose sight of the explosive growth in Internet usage and commerce taking place below the surface," said research company IDC's chief research officer, John Gantz, who conducted the overall e-commerce study. B2B Driver The IDC study said that the e-commerce boom will come about largely as a result of the ever-expanding Internet population. Nearly one billion people -- about 15 percent of the earth's population -- will be on the Internet by 2005, fueling a whopping 70 percent compound annual growth rate for an Internet spending baseline of $354 billion in 2000. "The big push behind all this truly will be the business-to-business side of the house," IDC research analyst David Emberley told NewsFactor Network. "The numbers are split roughly along a ratio of about 80/20, with business-to-business really driving things forward. E-commerce is not going away anytime soon. The advantages of doing things through the Internet are too big to ignore." Emberley said that IDC's e-commerce predictions are more conservative than many research firms because its studies do not count Web surfers as buyers. "Even though cell phones may be Internet-enabled, that doesn't necessarily translate into e-commerce," he said. "The person has to click the 'buy' button and order on the Web to become part of our group of buyers." A Billion Surfers There will also be a fundamental shift in Net demographics, IDC predicted. By 2005, Internet use will be more widespread and not dominated by the U.S. and Europe, as it is today. In fact, the rest of the world will not only catch up with but will pass the U.S. E-commerce growth in the Asia/Pacific region, and especially in Latin American countries, will outpace growth in developed countries. Asia/Pacific will be battling Europe for the most Internet usage while the U.S. slips to third place. The U.S. accounts for nearly half of global e-commerce now -- 46 percent -- but IDC predicts that will slip to 36 percent by 2005, more in line with the U.S. market share in the global economy. Appliance Growth The Internet appliance market has been slow to catch on, particularly in the U.S., but will take off, according to high-tech market research firm Cahners In-Stat Group. Cahners predicted a 101 percent compound annual growth rate between 2000 and 2005. "Although the past year has been rocky for the Internet access device market, most of the players that were in this space a year ago are still in it today," said Cahners analyst Cindy Wolf. "And the numbers of players and new products are growing, indicating that manufacturers are not discouraged by the market climate." Trusting the Net The Yankee Group, a consultancy firm, said in a report that total spending by all businesses on the managed security market, which includes services for security firewalls, virtual private networks, intrusion detection and virus scanning, will leap from $140 million in 2000 to $1.7 billion in 2005. The main reason for the jump is that companies are increasingly outsourcing their security needs, reversing a trend that saw firms reluctant to allow outside companies to scrutinize their internal security systems. "We see the opportunity for a fundamental shift," said Matthew Kovar, author of the study. "An internal LAN (local area network) or corporate environment traditionally has been thought of as a trusted network. The Internet has been viewed as an untrusted network.">>