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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EACarl who wrote (47196)	5/24/2001 2:33:09 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: hahahahahah.................NO Laughing at me for being too bullish.............yes, that is funny. I've noticed that, on other threads, and from the posters who show up just to do some drive-by-shooting (like you), AMAT is thought of as absurdly overvalued. They tend to say, "it's too obvious to even discuss." OTOH, lots of people remember how it was a 10-bagger off the 1998 low, and lots of people are anticipating the 300mm transition, expecting it to create another huge ramp in the semi-equip stocks. Makes for a lot of volatility, as the two camps fight it out.

To: EACarl who wrote (47196)	5/24/2001 8:04:27 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Re:historically normal valuation for this point of the cycle. What historical valuation are you referring to? The low PSR of 1 in '96, the low PSR 0f ~2 in 98, or where we currently are? Notice how the trend has been up? History does not repeat; it merely rhymes. Don't say AMAT should trade at X valuation simply because it has done so in the past. BK

To: EACarl who wrote (47196)	5/24/2001 8:29:54 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 70976

Eric.... You say, '[For AMAT to reach $10]...all it would take is for AMAT to sell for a historically normal valuation for this point of the cycle. ' Certain data give complete support for your stance. For example, folks often note that the price to sales (p/s) ratio must fall to the 0.5 -1.0 range for any given equipment stock before claims about 'bottoming out' can be made. These are the current p/s of selected equipment stocks: KLIC....1.12 PRIA....1.39 ASYT....1.50 CMOS....2.26 LRCX....2.55 TER....2.58 VECO....3.17 AMAT....4.39 KLAC....5.07 NVLS....5.38 For AMAT to reach a p/s of 1.0, its share price would have to move to $12.06. Thus your statement about 'historically normal valuation' is quite accurate. Now we will both be lectured about 'how this time is different'.