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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: trilobyte who wrote (47222)	5/24/2001 3:18:00 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Tri, In 1998 folks bought into the sky is falling scenario for the equips. After 1998's recovery folks dont buy into that, thus the higher valuation. Cary's gang will miss this one, i believe. They are confusing the "history repeating itself" theory with the "learning from history" one. If you believe history repeats itself you have learned nothing from history at all. Exact repetition is rare and just provides one of many scenarios. Mike

To: trilobyte who wrote (47222)	5/24/2001 3:25:48 PM
From: Dale Knipschield	Respond to of 70976

Reliant Energy has been taking a lot of heat for their pricing of peak power to California. This URL sheds more light on the real situation and why Reliant is forced to charge such astronomical prices when they are allowed to fire up their California based peaking units................per usual, the politicians and media have been telling us only half the story! biz.yahoo.com Will the local EPA officials drop the tight restrictions, allowing Reliant to run the units more, allowing them to recover their costs over a longer running time? Should be interesting. Regards, Knip

To: trilobyte who wrote (47222)	5/24/2001 5:42:02 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I question the assumption that bookings will improve enough in the September - March period to support current prices. The "no limit poker game" that everyone is depending on to spur equipment purchases in the face of low capacity utilization, was most applicable to commodity memory makers for whom cost/byte was everything and almost destoyed the economies of the SE Asian countries that borrowed and expanded without regard to real need. As far as AMAT valuation at $20B, $150 was based on a P/S ratio of 6. Since AMAT has net profit of ~20%, that is a PE of 30 and computes to $5 earnings. When you imagine a PE of 50 on earnings from cycle peak sales, I imagine an enthusiastic participant on the wrong end of the dot-com fleecing.