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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harvey Allen who wrote (7177)	5/24/2001 9:53:37 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

Bingo!

To: Harvey Allen who wrote (7177)	5/24/2001 10:17:07 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

Hah! And we should trust what Greenspam has to say? If everyone agrees that he got it wrong last year why should we believe what he says this year? I'm glad Greenspan thinks we are on track to return to solid growth. I'm glad everyone thinks energy prices will abate. I'm glad everyone thinks they can go back to buying the same old over-owned and overpriced tech junk. Means there will be some good shorting opportunities in the near future. >> The forces constraining business investment are ``fizzling out,'' and once they do, demand for computers and other high- technology goods ``should again strengthen demand for capital equipment and restore solid economic growth,'' Greenspan said. << Yeah, well wait until people find out that stuff like computers, storage, and optical equipment are selling again, but there aren't profits to be had. This might not be the best analogy, but it is the first that popped into my head. Disk drives continued to improve in the second half of the 90's offering infinitely faster speeds and more storage. The technology didn't grind to a halt. But did you want to be long disk drive companies the last 5 years? No, because over-supply caused a glut and pricing went out the window. Has memory chip speeds and capacity increased? I think I have some 1MB memory floating around in a drawer still Now we have much faster 256 MB chips for cheap. Would you have wanted to be long Micron for the last 5 years? Their stock price is FLAT. Do you remember when modems first came out? Sloooow. Expensive. Now we have whiz bang cable modems and 56k jobbies but did you want to be long a modem or NIC company the last 5 years? Hell no. Look at the pricing for PDA's.....crumble. Computers....price wars. Optical and storage may seem so high tech and complicated that it won't be commoditized like the other things I mentioned, but think again about what CIEN said. "At least one competitor is going to desperate pricing measures," said new CEO Gary Smith So many fiber optic companies came about because everyone thought it was the holy grail, that some will price at whatever they have to to try to stay alive. That's what happens when too many dollars chase one industry. Capacity is everywhere and demand falls off so pricing plummets. This is why I keep warning that technology doesn't have to come to a screeching halt. It can march ever onward. But prices and profits can come to a screeching halt.