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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rande Is who wrote (51715)5/25/2001 8:41:43 AM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
The bullish slant to Greenspan's speech:

The past decade has been extraordinary for the American economy. The synergies of key technologies markedly elevated prospective rates of return on high-tech investments, led to a surge in business capital spending, and significantly increased the underlying growth rate of productivity.

His hallmark statement explaining how we can continue with high growth and low inflation. . . . PRODUCTIVITY.

Despite the marked softening in the flow of new orders into high-tech manufacturing firms in recent months, the level of these new bookings was still higher than in early 1999, a period of emerging euphoria.

Light at the end of the tech-bubble-tunnel?

As a consequence [of rate easing], some of the stringent financial conditions evident late last year have been eased.

That's good news in a nutshell.

Moreover, with all our concerns about the next several quarters, there is still, in my judgment, ample evidence that we are experiencing only a pause in the investment in a broad set of innovations that has elevated the underlying growth rate in productivity to a level significantly above that of the two decades preceding 1995.


In other words, Greenspan believes that "investment in a broad set of innovations" will resume and that the past year was merely a "pause".

By all evidence, we are not yet dealing with maturing technologies that, after having sparkled for a half decade, are now in the process of fizzling out. To the contrary, once the forces that are currently containing investment initiatives dissipate, new broadened applications of innovative technologies should again strengthen demand for capital equipment and restore solid economic growth.


Greenspan is saying that the tech wreck was a bump in the road, not the precursor of what is to come. This was his most aggressive market position statement of the night. . . and it was extremely bullish.

NOTE: This review was purposely written from an extremely bullish perspective. Bearish perspectives are likewise welcome here.

Rande Is



To: Rande Is who wrote (51715)5/25/2001 9:31:38 AM
From: carepedeum2000  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
i thought he was "vanilla" to positive, prudential upgraged semi equipment makers, i think naz will have a up day, hope we get a little dip here early
any holidility candidates?



To: Rande Is who wrote (51715)5/25/2001 3:35:31 PM
From: Joe Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Careful here... Interesting reaction to an extremely dovish Greenspan as well as a great turnaround in Consumer Confidence. Clearly, the Teflon has worn off of the rally. Obviously an upturn in the economy is priced in here and any threat of a prolonged bottom on a U-shaped downturn will be met with a sell-off. If you are holding here, then you are betting that there will be no indication of a prolonged bottom. You are betting that Greenspan has won. Although the cuts may take hold and improve the economy, that vision may be eclipsed by warnings season and an accompanying fear that the recession will not respond to the monetary medicine. If you think that a healthy bear is scary, think about a bear that has been shot a number of times and still turns and charges at you. Although, he may not have a long life left, for a short time he will be terrifying. I think that this is a distinct possibility and have become sidelined once again and am looking for candidates to sink my claws into. Any really bad news will lead to a very sharp sell-off IMO.