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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (47275)	5/25/2001 9:33:07 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AD, My fear about the economyin general and this group in particular involves the strength of the recovery, not the fact that there will be one. The jury is out on its strength and that is the key to the market. AG will continue to lower rates, he implies, until he gets a guarantee of a relatively robust recovery. I dont know if he can get that done this time. 50/50 in my opinion as to whether we get robust recovery or a mini-japan/stagflation scenario for 2002. The difference could translate to amat 70 or amat 30 and an equivalent nasdaq spread. Place your bets. Mike

To: advocatedevil who wrote (47275)	5/25/2001 10:41:17 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

RE: "We believe there are two primary risks to our thesis," he wrote. "One, no seasonal recovery due to reduction in consumer spending and two, prolonged and pervasive economic malaise which could delay a 2002 global economic recovery." I love this. The risks are that his superficial analysis might turn out to be complete bullsh*t. RE: "...with a 12-to-18 month time horizon, with upside potential of 50% or more..." I like 50% in 3 weeks a lot better. I suppose the buy and hold longs are thrilled to hear that the next up cycle will get them 50% from here!<G>