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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47306)	5/25/2001 8:26:11 PM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

SEMI EQUIP--WHICH WAY FROM HERE....? I very much appreciate the intelligent comment and research of many people on this thread. It provides me with a very useful basis for forming my own point of view. I have been in and out of this sector many times in the last number of years, primarily in AMAT KLAC ASYT PRIA MTSN CYMI and PLAB and ETEC before the takeover. Mainly it has been very rewarding. I am not in the sector right now--I am too scared of the short term. This is what I read about: -- trivial news about inconsequential items (and nothing much positive) -- terrible quarterly results -- terrible btb figures -- company after company cutting staff in big ways -- virtually no future "visibility" from anybody In the face of this I would expect that equity prices would be at their several year lows--but they are not, for the most part. Instead, right after the Semi Equip BTB we get upgrade after upgrade--based on what........the supposition that this represents the bottom? What about the possibility of orders staying at these incredibly low levels for some time? No big discussion of that! My gut suggests that we will have another round of warnings, followed by another uniformly miserable set of quarterly reports with still limited "visibility". I don't think the market will be patient with that, if that occurs. I like this sector a lot, in the longer term. It's just that I don't know how long in the future a demonstrable turnaround actually is.....And I certainly don't trust upgrades from analysts, based on the "feeling" that the bottom has been reached. Namaste! Jim