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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Calladine who wrote (47307)	5/25/2001 10:25:59 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

James, You said: --I am too scared of the short term. This is what I read about: -- trivial news about inconsequential items (and nothing much positive) -- terrible quarterly results -- terrible btb figures -- company after company cutting staff in big ways -- virtually no future "visibility" from anybody My most profitable purchases have always occurred when I went against how I was feeling at the time. I am not saying rush out and Buy AMAT bc you are scared; only that you should not be scared out of doing so because of the news coming from the sector. It will turn.....eventually. I am of the firm belief that we will see a sharp upturn in the sector because (1) we have experienced an historic drop and these are almost invariably followed by an equally sharp upswing and (2) the Feds actions should get the economy back on track. I am less confident in #2 than I am in #1, and since #1 relies in large part on #2, both could be called into question at this point. Brian

To: James Calladine who wrote (47307)	5/26/2001 11:28:48 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

My gut suggests that we will have another round of warnings, followed by another uniformly miserable set of quarterly reports... I find this very likely as well. The question is how will the markets react to it then. Many companies have said that this (or next) quarter will be the bottom for them. And others have moved up in anticipation of this scenario. Now suppose that we get a bunch of warnings in September with the forecast that the end is only 4 months quarters away. Will the market sell off or be willing to hold on? My guess is that we'll move sideways until we really see the end or some major shift in the global economic outlook takes place. ST