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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (47310)	5/26/2001 11:53:02 AM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

MARKET RESPONSE: The broader market seems to have a simplistic view of things, like: -- health of semi equip depends on health of semis -- semis health is propped up by Comms IC business -- the Comms IC business is close to a recovery -- high INTC capex means every semi maker must follow -- as a result, the semi equip turnaround is imminent Instead, I think we will find: -- low foundry utilization rates will continue for some time -- there will be substantial consolidation in the Comms field, like the anticipated LU/ALA combination -- there will be all kinds of bankruptcies, mergers and rationalizations of dotcoms and internet-related companies -- there will be more consolidation in the semi-equip field such as the three way combination that is now MTSN -- this consolidation process will take more time than the market visualizes right now -- the market's reaction will be impatience, and the "hot money" will go elsewhere than this field (for a time), until there are very tangible signs that the rationalizations have occurred, and the order rate is picking up In short, I see cheaper share prices ahead, and I intend to hold on until then before buying in. This is also necessary for me because my stupidity in playing the Nasdaq meltdown of 2000-2001 has decimated my portfolio so much that what little money I have left I handle with considerably more conservatism. Whether this is the right approach, we will see......! Namaste! Jim