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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hmpa who wrote (48)	5/26/2001 7:39:49 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1005

If a doctor writes a scrip for the combo, I do not believe the pharmacist could substitute the two generics. Further, a benefits manager would be delighted to substitute this drug (at a price well above the two generics) for an expensive triptan. The POZN trials showed comparable efficacy with a low-dose triptan. I believe there is a large unmet need for migraine treatment one notch below the triptans but above OTC Excedrin or NSAIDS. Few doctors are aware of the efficacy of the metoclopramide/naprosyn combo. I very much doubt many would go to the trouble of writing two scripts and explaining to the patient that they need to take them together, aside from the compliance issues that might result. I do have some concern about the use of metoclopramide, with TD (tardive dyskinesia) being a worrisome (but rare) side-effect. Domperidome (Motilium) would likely have been a better choice (it doesn't cross the blood-brain barrier), but it is unfortunately not available in the US, although it is OTC in the UK and Europe. The bottom line here though is that these guys have gotten excellent clinical trial results in a very large but still under-served area. Peter

To: hmpa who wrote (48)	5/29/2001 12:27:05 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1005

hmpa, I have to believe Peter's view on POZN is widely accepted, if not accurate. The deal would never have gotten out of the chute were their marketing prospects so obviously bad as you suggest. In any case, worth digging further. Prudential, which looks as though it might be trying to carve a niche for itself as the first born again call 'em as we really see 'em brokerage house, likes it: >>NEW YORK, May 29 (Reuters) - Prudential Securities downgraded five development-stage biotech companies and upgraded another after reevaluating its ratings in accord with company-wide rating system changes. The downgraded biotechs include Ista Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISTA - news) and ViroLogic Inc. (VLGC - news), which were dropped to hold from strong buy, citing capital risks. Corvas International Inc. (CVAS - news) and Texas Biotechnology Corp. (TXB - news) were also lowered to hold from strong buy, due to clinical development remaining in a quiet period. Triangle Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VIRS - news) also went to a hold, citing valuation and commercial risk. Analyst John Sonnier said the four fundamental risks for these companies are management/infrastructure, technical, regulatory, and capital risk. Sonnier said seven of the firm's former strong buy-rated stocks were given the firm's now-highest buy ratings; including Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:AMLN - news), Cerus Corp. (Nasdaq:CERS - news), Guilford Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:GLFD - news), Insmed Inc. (Nasdaq:INSM - news), Pozen Inc. (Nasdaq:POZN - news), Scios Inc. (Nasdaq:SCIO - news), and Trimeris Inc. (Nasdaq:TRMS - news). Neose Technologies (Nasdaq:NTEC - news) was upgraded to buy from hold.<< snip "Clinical development remaining in a quiet period." I guess that means that CVAS & TXB are among Mr. Sonnier's pet peeve slowpoke biotechs. They'll probably announce clinical news within two weeks, just to spite him. CVAS, though not a BLUE HP candidate, might be worth a look if it suffers badly from this downgrade. I know nada about TXB. Appropriately, POZN is unchanged as I type. End of my ruminating on DPII: in addition to promising chemical synthesis and HTS technology, it also has topological protein surface analysis technology (TOKEN), data mining capability (haven't heard much about it, though), and gene expression via Xenometrix. For TrickleMavens, they also let slip that they use FLIPR assays at the moment. That's MDCC technology. Cheers, Tuck