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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smh who wrote (3894)	5/29/2001 9:12:06 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Here's a comment from JAGnotes on prospects for CRO's (which are something of a proxy for the entire pharmaceutical industry pipeline): Pharmaceutical Services: 2001 Data Shows Uptick in Phase III Development Companies Mentioned: (CVD), (ICLR), (KNDL), (PPDI), (PRXL), (QTRN) . The 2001 Pharmaprojects data shows the first increase in Phase III development activity since 1997. . Phase I and Phase II activity continues to be strong. . Given the strength in Phase I and Phase II growth over the past few years, we expect the Phase III growth to continue over the next few years. . The Pharmaprojects 2001 annual review noted a decrease in the number of discontinued projects. . A recent article in the May 2001 issue of Scrip evaluated the Pharmaprojects data for another purpose, but the underlying analysis appears to support our interpretation. . Given this data, we believe the outlook for the group is positive over the next 3-5 years. Peter

To: smh who wrote (3894)	5/30/2001 10:35:37 AM
From: nigel bates	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Nice deal for Iconix - Message 15869374

To: smh who wrote (3894)	1/1/2002 1:44:49 PM
From: smh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Cross Portfolio ends 2001 up 11.25%! Not bad, but… Since I have not provided an update since May, let me refresh everyone as to what this portfolio is about. The portfolio is based on the premise that cross-ownership among biotechs may represent unrecognized value and, therefore, contribute to undervaluation in the market. It is an unmanaged portfolio, based on a snapshot taken on 12/29/00 (see the tabulation below). Cross started 2001 strongly with a 20% gain by the end of January, but promptly dived along with the sector to a negative 25-30% in March. It got back into the green by the end of May and returned to + 20% on the back of STEM during the stem cell circus. Of course the portfolio sank to –20% at the end of September before it was saved by a BTRN pop, followed by a strong end-of-year finish. It's not at all clear that the cross-ownership theme of the portfolio explains the positive results. For example, the biggest gainer TRPS (ARNA) was up 75.6% while ARNA was actually down by 22%. Perpetually cash starved STEM might have been helped by the liquidation of its interest in Modex. However, completion of sales early in the year were at firesale prices and had no impact on valuation. STEM obviously benefited from the stem cell excitement in 2001, finishing at +39.6%. Then there is BTRN/SCS. Twice in the past I have rolled pops in the stem cell sector into BTRN – only to see BTRN sit there like a rock. Finally recognized in the media as a stem cell co earlier this year, the market still appears to credit 0 value for the BTRN/SCS connection. NBSC/DGI was up 19.9%…don’t know how much of this Rick might attribute to DGI. To be candid, I don’t follow most of the companies in the portfolio...comments are welcome. Here is the original 12/29/00 cross-ownership table; Primary / Sub MC/MC % owned $ owned NBSC / DGI 28 / xx 84% xxx BTRN / SCS 102 / xx 25% xxx CEGE / ABGX 778 / 4828 10.5% 507 STEM / Modex 52 / 180 9.0% 16.4 MCDE / Iconix 47 / xxx 31.6% xxx RZYM / Atugen AG 220 / xxx 29% xxx TXB / Revotar Bio. AG 352 / xxx 55.2% xxx KDUS / Axiom 9.5 / 15 (est.) 20% 3.0 TRPS / ARNA 77 / 352 8.8% 31.2 AVM / CYTO 17.8/ 178 1.58% 2.8 AXPH / DPII 209 / 289 31% 90 / Akkadix / xxx 23% xxx / DNA Sciences / xxx 5% xxx And the portfolio link in which the the CRA takeover of AXPH and the MCDE merge into ETRX have been accounted for. siliconinvestor.com