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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47411)	5/30/2001 8:53:28 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Worldwide Production Value of Smaller LCDs for 2001 Rises by 29 Pct.: Survey May 30, 2001 (TOKYO) -- Nikkei Market Access noted a significant growth in the world market for small- and mid-sized liquid-crystal displays for mobile devices such as mobile phones and personal digital assistants. A survey found the annual output in 2000 was 455.5 million units, up 56 percent on an annual basis. The output for 2001, however, is expected to be around 512.1 million units, a smaller year-on-year growth of 12 percent in volume due to the slowdown in the mobile phone market since the latter half of 2000. On the other hand, the value of the output in 2000 was US$6.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58 percent, while the estimated value and growth rates of the output for 2001 are US$7.76 billion and 29 percent, respectively. The factor which has made the growth in output value surpass the growth in output volume was the spreading use of color displays for mobile phones and PDAs. The adoption of color displays in mobile phones went into full swing in latter half of last year in Japan. For 2001, almost 100 percent of LCDs for the Japanese market are color displays, and the LCD makers expect this trend will further prevail around the world. In the PDA market as well, items with color LCDs such as the "iPAQ" from Compaq Computer Corp. are gaining popularity. With good prospects for market growth, however, many LCD makers are becoming engaged in this business arena, turning up the competition. In particular, TFT-LCD makers are flooding into the manufacturing of displays for mobile phones, in addition to STN makers. Under such circumstances, most of these makers have launched bullish manufacturing plans, expecting the annual output of color LCDs for mobile phones in 2001 to total around 68 million units. On the other hand, the estimate to one extreme end on the worldwide production of color-display mobile phones in 2001 is no more than 56.6 million units in total. Suffering from the rapidly shrinking revenue in the large-size LCD business, many Japanese TFT makers are striving to cut their own way in the small- and mid-sized LCD business. Therefore, it is very likely these makers will increase their output as they have planned, and thus engage themselves in a fight against STN makers for the limited pie. * Figures for 2001 are estimates. Data: Nikkei Market Access (Ken Nakamura, Nikkei Market Access)

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47411)	5/30/2001 9:03:33 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, We were probably headed for those lows that carl talks about when the markets judged speedy fed moves as a plus for amat et al. Each time is different. That is not to say that a fed failure to induce a return to respectable growth will not cause this group to retest lows or perhaps worse. All of us engaged in TA or FA are merely predicting on what kind of recovery we will have in what time frame. This week it seems gloomy, while a couple of weeks ago it was different. I believe volume continues to be light with plenty of money and liquidity out there to jump in if and when news brightens a bit. With Sun we might have had company specific issues spook the market rather than "weaker European sales" as they said cause the fall yesterday and this morning. We will see soon enough whethere this decline has legs. Mike

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47411)	5/30/2001 11:42:03 AM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

"One cannot value a highly cyclical company using either the extreme highs or lows of the sector, and say in all seriousness that it is a fair valuation. IMHO, one should make an attempt to smooth out revenue and earnings streams over a period of time to arrive at fair value." One would like to think that the strength in AMAT compared to previous bottoms means that Wall Street has finally learned how to do what you're suggesting, but I have my doubts. Even if they have, how do you figure out where the mean is in the face of such extreme, and increasingly wide, swings in business? suite101.com