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Biotech / Medical : Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (746)	5/30/2001 9:57:14 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1834

Rick, IJ, Miljenko - There is nothing wrong with NBIX but recovery came to fast, IMHO. When the market goes downhill, NBIX shareprice will come down hard. The same is true for most other biotechs, short term they are simply liquidity driven. I wait for most of them to reenter earth atmosphere before buying in again. Miljenko's remark that diabetes drug could be worth 1B$ market cap is interesting. Seems very high for me, considering the stage the drug is in. Also NRGN has a CRF1 program, even though its preclinical and behind NBIX.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (746)	5/31/2001 4:23:03 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1834

Risks of investing - OT - My views... I agree with your warning about investing in biotechs. In fact, I think that the warning goes for investing in any stock. The markets tend to hype the "flavor of the day" and it is often a trap for the unwary. I have been investing for close to 35 years (started at 15) and it is always challenging. I have made all the mistakes - some more than once. <g> To see how risky things get - you don't have to look any further than NBIX. On 1/29/01 it was 35, in six weeks it dropped to 15 and now 10 weeks later it is 36. So much for efficient market theory. Nothing during that period changed that would account for the decline and bounce back. You need conviction and a constitution of steel to invest on your own. Following what someone else says is a map to disaster. Whether it is Richard Harmon, an analyst from Prudential or anyone else - you can't get real conviction from listening to others. You MUST do the work necessary to become convinced of the reason you are investing. Without that the market movements will shake you out - to your disadvantage. Without conviction, how can you buy when a stock has dropped 50%, 60% or 80%? Yet, if the value is there, that is the time to buy. For those who feel they MUST invest on their own - I would suggest they start small and only very gradually increase the share of net worth that they invest. And please don't think that you know what you are doing if you have a couple winners right out of the gate. It was probably a fluke and could be the worst thing that could happen to you. The waters of investing are filled with sharks - they will eat you alive - so be careful. ij