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Biotech / Medical : Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (747)	5/30/2001 11:10:18 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 1834

Ralf: There are very few stocks that I won't trade, in fear of being out when good news might hit. NBIX is one of them. If it does drop, I'll accumulate more. I won't sell a single share. OTOH, I'm not overweight the issue either. Rick

To: Spekulatius who wrote (747)	5/30/2001 11:22:25 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 1834

20% WW royalty and 120 millions in fee and milestones for early stage program (all expense paid by Taisho) suggest that Taisho is very upbeat on it. For 20% royalty I value program at min 10X fee + milestone. Normally, this all this is IF, but you have to start to believe somewhere. What portion of VRTX MC was from ICE program, after they announce deal with Aventis? Miljenko PS: I am not suggesting that you (or anyone reading my posts) by NBIX, at any price.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (747)	5/31/2001 12:17:44 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1834

>> but recovery came to fast << I don't look at it as recovery coming fast. I look at it as recognition coming slow. If CRF antagonists work, the market potential for depression is $5 billion, give or take a few. That's with a "B". If there is a second indication for which they look good, it reduces risk ass'd with the program. The IBS data is a gift...... I'm single, and I date a lot. The incidence of IBS is mind whalloping. It's a disturbance that is embarrassing as well as disabling. Add this sort of leverage to a good (perhaps the best) insomnia program, and I don't want to chance trading in and out. Neuro companies, once they get an edge, will be the most compelling investments of the decade. They've been very good to me (even Gliatech), and I've been up to my eyeballs since Athena (Elan). The population is aging, and -- if some haven't noticed -- stress and anxiety are increasingly accompaniments of life. >> When the market goes downhill, NBIX shareprice will come down hard. << And a market collapse is a given? Why are you so sour on the market's prospects? Why don't you believe that biotech, given strong fundamentals (cash-rich companies, driving toward pronounced demand), wouldn't bash against the trend? If you find a company that is fundamentally undervalued, it can do very well in a tough market. quote.yahoo.com >> The same is true for most other biotechs, short term they are simply liquidity driven. I wait for most of them to reenter earth atmosphere before buying in again. << On a historical basis, sector valuations are -- at the moment -- generally conservative. Some companies are still just screaming bargains, IMO. Sorry, but I don't buy into your pessimism. A NAZ that came back from 5,000 to 1,600 has riddled your brain. :-) Here's the relative performance of the big biotechs, largely operational companies............. quote.yahoo.com That captures the expectations for mixing hot science with business, and the little guys have a ton of catching up to do.