Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FrozenZ who wrote (77648)	5/30/2001 8:18:53 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 99985

No what is causing it is rumor of Japan pulling money out of Treasuries to bail out banks. Japan met with O'Neal and with Greenspank this week. West

To: FrozenZ who wrote (77648)	5/30/2001 9:07:23 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

First of all, all these profit warnings... this was all known two months ago and has nothing to do with the sell off despite what the media tells us>>>> the news is not the key, it's the reaction to the news, a # of tech stocks on the nyse & daq most actives were gapping down on downward earning revisions, nothing bullish about downward earnings revisions, while the daq did a false breakout last week, many many tech stocks have been coiling since the 4/19 top on declining volume and are now breaking out on expanding volume to the downside, declining volume, declining vix, narrowing daily tick range, clown's zone off the top of the hotlist, +60% bulls AAII, all signs of complacency at the top of a bear rally. The pattern on the nwx is one of a bear flag, which indicates that we should see new lows in nwx, and this leadership should drag the rest of tech with it. b i would compare the gaps in the chart as breakaway gaps off the top, just like the breakaway gaps off the 4/4 low, i believe this kind of forceful move indicates lower prices ahead and selling rallies will work better than buying dips, until we see a return of some good bearish sentiment.

To: FrozenZ who wrote (77648)	5/30/2001 9:23:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

When things go to far that way this secretive little gang will blow the shorts out of the water probably in a surprise days before options expiration or not. That is why it is too dangerous to be shorting near term unless one is daytrading. Even that can be dangerous if the market gets very close to Nasdaq 2000---an intermeeting cut could be coming then and the reason given will be technology spending...when everyone knows it is the market. It would spark a massive short covering rally since it would suprise the market. Greenspan's focus is the technology spending--the engine of productivity growth. He will do whatever is in his power to try to keep the Nasdaq from dipping to the lows. Remember they were considering an intermeeting move in April, just ahead of their regular meeting (based upon the minutes released...that is what I recall was reported)...all the while the "economists" seemed to have been predicting a slower pace of rate cuts. I believe it may have resulted from the Cisco profit warning around mid April. Cisco had painted a bad picture and that probably worried the FED too much. Only after seeing the market taking the warning in stride, they probably decided against the intermeeting cut. Greenspan knows the risks are too real to take any chances. He is listening to those that forecast a recession and not those that predict a second half recovery. AG does not want to take any chances. 50bps is almost a sure thing for this meeting (IMHO) even though FED funds indicate only 25bps. I bet he prefers to do this when the market is on a rebound. AG seems very concerned about the aftermaths of the technology bubble. (just speculation)