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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (16803)	5/30/2001 8:57:08 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Justa, if the last bookings for the industry was $730 MM, and of that INTC was 530 MM (they promised $7.5 B of which they sent in the first Q 36%, divide what is left by 9 and you get roughly that number for INTC monthly orders), that means that the rest of the industry has gone on strike. Taiwans' main foundry is at 50% of capacity and the last I heard about Charter was 30%. They are not going to order much equipment until they get back to the 70% to 80% utilization rate. Furthermore, since these guys supply the like of Altera, they must be that way down because Altera like Xilinx must be sinking in inventory. I resume you posted that as a warning that the sox is going to be beaten down like pulp. That agrees with some of the warnings I have been voicing about that sector. On the other hand, some people may start and say for how long will they be on strike? I think that what the Joseph's are missing, ids that it may take a year before we even see the $230 B or so in chip sales annual rate sales where pressure on existing capacity will start and be felt. Many of the semi equip are not priced for a lengthy (three four q) sub par revenues. Zeev Zeev