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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4016)	5/30/2001 10:23:51 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>I went to the countryside of Yichang ...traveling on a stretch of a new superhighway under construction...<< The infrastructure (european hispeed trains, Maglev connection of Shanghai airport...) is being built up in China. So: China needs infrastucture & has capital - and evidently lots of it - to build it. Where does it come from? It definitely competes with - er - somebody else for it (g). At the same time US is in dire need of a general overhaul of supply chains/structures for: power, gas, gasoline, (ie energy), drinking water, national defense (and Im not talking about NMD here, US army is running out of 9mm ammo etc) let's throw medicare in here... This is all investments, that WS will not like very much to say the very least. Realistic scenario: NMD will get built and cariboos in Alasca will get neighbours. And US will get stagflation. >>I do not actually agree with my friend on this point entirely. << You dont agree with me or with CB? Or both? My question/assumption was, Taiwan capital has been shifting (lately? for the last few years?) its attention in significant way from the US consumer to the main land. I assume Japan does not play a major role for several more or less well-known reasons. dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4016)	5/31/2001 4:54:48 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<<The average age of cars on the road in Japan is over 10 years, I believe, and so think about the pent-up demand!>>> Jay just lurking here, and have been for a long time. Enjoy the thread immensely. Now with all that praise out of the way let me correct the above passage quoted from your message; The average car on the road in Japan is way under 10 years of age, in fact it is very expensive to keep a car on the road after that (because of various taxes and inspections) and although I don`t have the exact number I would say the average car in Japan is (taking a rough guess ) probably under 6 years of age. I have been living here for 9 years and use that to back up my estimate. Now if you are talking the average for commercial vehicles , especially heavy truck or buses, that would very much likely be different as after the 98 Asian blow up, the market for used equipment (trucks, buses, cranes, earth diggers etc) collapsed. So most J cos involved in that field (construction cos, transportation cos dealing with industrial users -- as opposed to delivery cos, door to door type -- ) are having a hard time upgrading their wares for lack of capital. Hope that helps. sg