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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4079)	5/31/2001 6:45:07 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Great post HEinz! This stuff takes time though, and far longer than most of us realize (you being excepted).

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4079)	6/1/2001 1:22:37 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Dr. Richebacher calculates that last year every dollar of GDP growth was financed with 4.55 dollars in additional credit creation. that compares to the much tamer 30 cents in new credit for every dollar of GDP growth in the mid fifties. > I mentioned debt load vs income last week... I think people just sort of assume all these numbers are meaningless because they don't think of it in simple terms. Every downturn has it's bankruptcies of course.... this time it should be something. DAK

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4079)	6/1/2001 1:34:55 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Heinz: A concise, well reasoned and absolutely accurate commentary. CB is an intelligent gal and a thread cohort who I genuinely respect for her views, but she is really missing the main point,...... the staggering size of the debt bubble that the Fed's policies have encouraged and the abyss it has created in our path. Well put, my friend. Best, Earlie

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4079)	6/1/2001 4:44:45 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>the whole tech sector has been transformed from incredible boom to a fight for survival in a matter of less than a year. << With all the accounting flim-flam -- don't you think they were already fighting for survival from about mid-99. There weren't that many hi-tech firms showing gangbusters growth except those starting from a very small base. Some said revenues shrank while profits held steady or grew during those later quarters of 99 -- looked like nonsense, smelled like nonsense, and sure enough ...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4079)	6/1/2001 10:19:30 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 74559

otherwise know as a moral hazard it is precisely its willingness to err on the side of lower (way too low during the boom) rates , the bailing out of speculators at every turn and the refusal to adopt targets for the growth of monetary aggregates that has brought about the vast imbalances & ....all this could have been avoided - by allowing the market to decide the level of interest rates. the demand and supply of money would have properly regulated itself. the boom would have been more modest... Deja vu all over again <ng> Regards, Peter