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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (4127)	6/1/2001 2:37:53 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Earlie, I guess if I had bookmarked the Clown-Free zone I would have kept up with you better. What are you doing to make the best of the debt-bubble situation? The Fed seems determined to inflate us out of it, but the more they inflate the more people go on borrowing. Let me stop and check this week's Fed figures: Ok, M2 is still going up about 12% P.A.. MZM still going up over 21 % P.A. I don't think gold is very good any more because the technology makes it so cheap to produce. The dollar is as nutty as a tech stock. How about buying real estate in Canada with American dollars? A Canadian friend of mine (working in the US) says this: "My neighbour across the street just put her house on the market [in Massachusetts] for 179,000. She has one half bath more than I do, but even still... I can get 90 acres and a neat house for 72,000 US outside of Fredericton, NB -- the high tech capital of the Canadian east coast."

To: Earlie who wrote (4127)	6/1/2001 5:29:04 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Earlie, here's an article i have found today regarding the actions of corporate insiders (one of the main reasons why i believe that the bear market will return in full force later this year): TUESDAY MAY 29 2001 US executives rush to sell their own stock BY CARL MORTISHED, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS EDITOR TOP executives in the United States are selling stock in their own companies at increasing rates, suggesting that the renewed confidence in the profits of US inc. is not shared by the people in the know. Sellers outnumber buyers by a factor of three to one among directors of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange ( NYSE ) , says Argus Vickers, which publishes the closely watched Vickers Weekly Insider. The high ratio of sellers to buyers has been sharply rising over the past year and the rush by insiders to sell stock worries analysts because it suggests that US companies are not seeing the benefit of interest rate cuts in their order books. Bijal Shah, of SG Securities, sees a bearish signal from the executive behaviour. He said: “Directors may not know how to value their companies, but they are good at forecasting earnings per share. Aggressive selling by insiders means that market earnings forecasts are too high. Who better than directors to know their own order books?” Mr Shah reckons that the hint from insiders that order books are not filling is a warning that demand is not picking up for the industrial sector. “Companies are conserving their cashflow and that is bad news for equipment companies,’’ he said. The record shows that US directors and other company insiders have been remarkably canny in their dealings, refusing to be drawn into market hysteria but selling and buying their own book. At the end of 1998, company insiders in NYSE-quoted firms were buying their own stock aggressively, refusing to be drawn into a bearish mood created by the Russian debt crisis and the collapse of Long Term Capital Management. Likewise, a year later, directors were buying again. Towards the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000, fund managers were starting to pour money into the so-called “new economy” Nasdaq stocks and billions of dollars were sucked out of “old economy” companies such as Procter & Gamble, Unilever, chemical companies and engineering firms, many of them quoted on the NYSE. However, the tech boom helped order books and NYSE insiders bought their own shares as the funds sold. The record now suggests that insiders believe that those shares are no longer cheap.