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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (4130)	6/1/2001 2:45:06 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

*Fredericton NB?!* Jeese, you must be desperate...If the price matters, there's some good deals in New Foundland (north coast of course). You'll definitely avoid the danger of excessive UV exposure at no extra cost...Re NB, it all depends on your blood group - the black flies love or loved (my) A+ . What about buying Green Gables (PEI)? Or something close by? The flies are not that ferocious on the island. dj

To: Tommaso who wrote (4130)	6/1/2001 4:38:46 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Tommaso, ' neat house for 72,000 US outside of Fredericton, NB -- the high tech capital of the Canadian east coast." ' A similar differential exists between Toronto (where I live) and New Brunswick. I wouldn't be as drastic as DJ LOL, as I have spent a lot of vacation time there and it's beautiful, part New England, part Quebec. It is on our short list of retirement destinations. Newfoundland or PEI, nice to visit,... once, only for the hardy :0) A fairer comparison would be with Vancouver, Toronto or even Calgary, (Montreal is only a sad vestige of its former self). regards Kastel

To: Tommaso who wrote (4130)	6/4/2001 12:48:14 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Tommaso: As you note, the fed is pouring liquidity into the system, and that is inflationary. But the reason they are doing this is that potent deflationary forces are spreading globally. At this end, all the stuff I look at suggests that deflation has too much momentum this time to be stopped by the Fed's actions so I try to invest from the point of view that we are moving into a depression. That means primarily short. Delightfully, shorting has provided very solid returns for close to two years now and I think it gets better as we go forward. As noted earlier, the "long" side of the market is only of interest to me where very special circumstances prevail ("companies that will do well in bad times"). I do think gold is a useful form of currency depreciation insurance, so I think ownership of some well chosen junior gold stocks that possess large proven reserves makes good sense. I am not a gold bug, but the US$ frightens the wits out of me. Personally, I see real estate as a poor investment at this time. Inventories of commercial and manufacturing real estate are rising and prices for same are softening. Residential real estate is in a bubble, so I can't see the reasoning behind buying it now. It should become an excellent investment once the bubble breaks (recall all those apartment blocks that were bought for a song in Texas when the oil bubble broke last time around?). With respect to how one might profit from the huge debt levels, just dig into the 10-Ks and 10-Qs of the publicly traded companies and pick out the ones that haven't a hope of servicing (never mind paying back) their debts. "Mortally wounded" says it all and they provide a solid return if handled properly. Best, Earlie