Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (77712)	6/1/2001 9:07:00 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

List all the reasons that the market will stay over 2000 and rally nearly 20% from here in the next few weeks. I gotta know. I have listed many factors over the past 2 months. Don't want to repeat them as I am sure some may be irritated by my repetitiveness. This is just for you. -underownership of tech stocks in mutual funds compared to last year and even earlier this year. Therefore, less supply. -mutual funds that are light on tech (for example Fidelity) are looking for buying opportunities and any weakness will mean they buy...and remember big funds can't buy everything in one day -no tax related selling like we saw at the end of March or early April. That was a reason why the Janus fund types kept large cash positions (20% or so) in anticipation of redemptions. What if the redemptions were somewhat less than planned? Mutual funds are always conservative and like to have more cash when facing redemptions; that happened back in the Russian debt problems and "Asian contageon" period...they only ended up buying later and pushing the markets up very fast. -short interest has continued to climb to very high levels in technology. That is one of my key reasons for focussing on technology and not as much on oil, drugs, consumer or other sectors. Highest short interest I have ever seen Not only that, there has been more short covering of low price Nasdaq stocks and had increased shorting on big caps. -Nasdaq is at 2100 and not 5000 -Companies have set the bar so low for earnings expectations this quarter that the market will be surprised by how few the profit warnings are---i am referring to the big cap tech stocks. We should actually see the recent trend to issue statements that the companies will meet current guidance. That alone will catch so many traders that are playing the profit warnings by surprise. -employment numbers were good this morning; actually great numbers..of course I did not know that yesterday. Unemployment rate actually went down! -Greenspan aware of the market's effect on consumer confidence and will more aggressively if needed to boost confidence-if by chance it drops again. He will do whatever is required to keep the Nasdaq over 2000, imho, because of its effect on confidence. -technical analysts and traders are expecting a repeat of what happened last fall and early this year and expect the market to tank. As we all know, if everyone is expecting the same thing, can it really happen? That is why I think the move will be EXPLOSIVE. If this consensus that the market is going to lower (ie. pessimism) was not there, I would have predicted a gradual increase on the markets. I have sure I have listed other reasons such as major product launches by MSFT that will impact the economy positively later in the year (WindowsXP) but can't remember those points. I have just written the above in the last few minutes and was not trying to find every reason. (Sorry, if my post is a bit disorganized and I typed it in a bit a haste..since I have some trading to do <g>) Now you have the opportunity to shoot down all my ideas if you want.<g>