Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pigboy who wrote (136458)	6/1/2001 7:32:11 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Pigboy and Thread, Can I offer an unsolicited and humble opinion on what could take place, at least in the PC marketplace? Microsoft is going to release their new OS in October. Starting sometime in the next three-four months, individuals and companies will begin to defer PC purchases figuring why buy now and upgrade later, when I can buy a machine factory loaded with W-XP in October. In August/September, box makers, retailers and distributors will cut inventories, boxes loaded with the old OS will be difficult to sell after XP's release, nobody will want to have that inventory. With a WAG of three to six weeks lead time on microprocessors, I would guess that Intel's business will hit a slump in and after July. That's the bad news. The good news is that with the introduction of XP, the sales channels will have to replenish their inventories. With a lead time of three to six weeks for bringing in microprocessors before the boxes ship, that should give Intel a spike in business starting in early September. Many analyst believe we will start to see a PC replacement cycle beginning in the 4th quarter, from the PC's bought pre-Y2K, that will become fully depreciated. At that time Intel should have 2+ GHz on .13, that will make the 300-600 MHz machines bought in 1999 seem very slow. So my very humble guess is that Intel's business will suffer through most of the second and third quarter. There should be a lot of doomsayers right through the summer, but Intel should give a very positive 3rd quarter report (because of September sales) and guidance in October. I have no idea if or when the stock will start to go up in anticipation of a good IAG 4th quarter and 2002. And if the communications division doesn't start to recover, it could be that increased sales in microprocessors just offset the losses on the other side. All speculation and guesses. Feel free to bookmark and let me know how wrong I was. John

To: Pigboy who wrote (136458)	6/1/2001 9:43:33 AM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 186894

Break up the Lakers. Wait, that's Dom B. Sorry PB, the Italian riviera mention faked me out for some reason. Tony

To: Pigboy who wrote (136458)	6/1/2001 3:23:48 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Pigboy - Re: "Would love to hear any opinions/thoughts about where you think the economy is headed? " I have no idea. I can only hope that is has stopped deteriorating and will soon begin to pick up. As I said, these are my hopes. Paul

To: Pigboy who wrote (136458)	6/1/2001 6:00:30 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Pigboy, Forgive my responding to your post, I dont think that you will see any new brightspots at the Intel earning update. IMHO: A. FOR 2001, COMMUNICATION IS DEAD, DEAD, DEAD ! Today communication customers, like Cisco and the other darlings, are almost comatose ! I continue to hear rumors that Cisco has at least one more round of layoffs, and write-offs. Cellular is still suffering from major indigestion, and the excess inventory will take some time to be digested. B. BUSINESS COMPUTING IS STILL SINKING: Capital expenditures continue to shrink and today San Jose Mercury News reports that IT budgets are being cut every month. www0.mercurycenter.com This is reflected in Sun's earnings warnings and financial woes. Scott McNeely was recently asked if he had seen a bottom, and he quipped " the only time I get to see a bottom is when I change my sons diaper". However Sun's pain may be Intel's gain. The shrinking IT budgets may accelerate the transition to XEON with Linux, or Windows 2000. [ Itanium will not contribute meaningful profits until next year.] C. CONSUMER COMPUTING SHOULD "BOTTOM" OUT VERY SOON: Consumer spending has "bottomed", and consumer confidence is stable. The tax cut should stimulate something ! Intel expects a seasonal upturn in this segment soon. The new Windows XP should be another stimulant. Silicon Investor postings in the last few days imply that Intel may be regaining consumer market share from AMD. The weakest part of the economic equation is capital spending. Greenspan's interest rate cuts will eventually ignite capital spending. But, when ? ? All in all a real uptick in earnings is at least several months away. However the stock can take off in anticipation of an uptick !