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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (77818)	6/3/2001 3:24:40 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Mike, I am not sure I understand the "gain". There is no gain to be had in this situation. It is high time that the PA understands that the longer they stretch the process the less they end up with. Arafat should have taken Barak's offer, it was not as good as what they were offered in 48, but it is better than what they may get in 2010. There is simply no strategic goal for both sides that can be reached with violence and cannot be reached with talk. My fear is that if Arafat does not manage to reign in his extremists, Sharon will have to devise a policy which will make it too "expensive" for the Palestinians to continue with their policy of terror. I could see Sharon declaring a staged plan in which he announces that for every month of continued terrorism, so many acres of settlements are getting off the negotiation table, and when all these questionable territories are off the table and terror continues, he'll put on the table a program of "straightening" the border, a mile of "land grab" for each week of continued terror. That may be accompanied by a war of attrition, where each terror action is responded with more and more severe retaliation, including reversion back of parts of territories A (fully under the control of the PA) to first, military occupation followed by settlement. That may continue until Arafat finally gets it that time is not on his side and that Hoseini's doctrine of agreeing to negotiations as an initial tactical step toward the strategic goal of eliminating the state of Israel, is simply going to be foiled. What is strange is that Arafat's new "intifada" was supposed to demoralize the Israeli, but the actual effects are actually increases in the morale and extremization of the political center in Israel. Before the new intifada, there was a good chance that th majority of Israeli would have accepted Barak's offer, now, that majority has disappeared, and the longer the reign of terror, the smaller will be the eventual foot print an eventual Palestinian state will have. Zeev