That Sinking Feeling
Poll: Challenges for Bush on Both Policy and Politics
Analysis
By Gary Langer
June 5 — George W. Bush faces sharp challenges on political and policy fronts alike, marked by a steep jump in public disapproval of his energy policies and a broad call for him to reverse course in his approach to Congress.
Fifty-eight percent of Americans now disapprove of the way Bush is handling the energy situation, up 15 points since the release of his energy plan. Disapproval of his work on the environment is also up, and his overall job approval rating is down by eight points to 55 percent, lower than seven of the previous nine presidents at the four-month mark.
Politically, this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds a broad call for moderation. The public says by a 30-point margin that Bush has tried harder in the last four months to "push his own agenda" in Congress than to compromise with the Democrats — and by 40 points, 68-29 percent, that in the future he should focus on compromise instead.
Much is at stake, because control of the center is so crucial in politics. As things stand now, Americans by 25 points, 57-32 percent, say the Democratic Party is more open than the Republicans to the ideas of political moderates. And by 41-20 percent they say it's a "good thing" control of the Senate has changed hands via the Jeffords defection.
Push / Compromise
Push his agenda Compromise with Dems.
Bush HAS done 63% 32
Bush SHOULD do 29 68
More open to the ideas of political moderates:
Republican Party Democratic Party
32% 57
Change in Senate control:
Good for the country Bad No difference
41% 20 38
Split Decision
In another telling result, Americans now divide about evenly on whose leadership they prefer, Bush's (40 percent) or the Democrats' (42 percent). In April, it was Bush by a 10-point margin.
Preferred direction:
Bush's Democrats'
6/3/01 40% 42 Dems +2
4/22/01 46 36 Bush +10
Moderates — who account for nearly half of all Americans — prefer the Democrats' direction by a 12-point margin. And moderates by 2-1 think the Democrats are more open to their ideas.
Moreover, Americans by sizable margins express preference for the Democrats' approach over Bush's on four issues tested in this poll — the environment, energy, patients' rights and Social Security. Bush's approach is preferred, by narrower margins, on two issues, taxes and international affairs. They're even on education and the economy.
Trust more to handle:
Bush Democrats
Environment 35% 54 Dems +19
Energy 36 52 Dems +16
Patients' rights 37 52 Dems +15
Social Security 38 52 Dems +14
Economy 44 46 Dems +2
Education 43 43 =
International affairs 47 40 Bush +7
Tax cuts 49 42 Bush +7
These preferences are best seen in terms of thematic affinity rather than views on specific legislation, which the public tends to follow less avidly than the professionals do.
Taxing Issue
In addition to his troubles on energy and the environment, Bush gets no bounce from the $1.35 trillion, 10-year tax cut that's been hailed as the signal achievement of his first four months.
That marks public ambivalence on the issue. On one hand tax cuts in and of themselves are not unpopular, and Bush holds a 58 percent approval rating for handling the issue. But there's still a broad suspicion (54 percent in this poll, the most to date) that the tax cut disproportionately benefits the wealthy. And Americans by 2-1 say they'd have preferred to see the tax cut money spent on social programs instead.
Bush's difficulties holding the center seem a lesser version of Bill Clinton's eight years ago. When Clinton was seen as tacking left after winning election as a centrist, his job approval rating fell sharply, to 46 percent at the four-month point.
Bush is doing better than Clinton at four months in overall job approval, 55 percent. But Bush is down from his level in late April (63 percent), and lower than usual for a postwar first-term president at what still should be the honeymoon stage. Other than Clinton, only Gerald Ford was lower.
Views of Bush's performance are not strictly ideological; a third of Americans call him "too conservative," which is about where it's been. At the same time, his job approval rating is 73 percent among self-described conservatives, compared to 50 percent among moderates (and 42 percent among liberals).
Views of Bush "as a person," at 61 percent favorable, are now a bit more positive than his job rating. The two were about equal in April.
Material Issues
Bush wins majority approval for his work specifically on international affairs (58 percent), taxes (also 58 percent), education (57 percent) and the economy (53 percent). His ratings fall below majority approval on energy, the environment, patients' rights and Social Security.
Approve / Disapprove
Approve Disapprove
International affairs 58% 33
Tax cuts 58 37
Education 57 35
Economy 53 41
Social Security 46 40
Environment 41 50
Patients' rights 40 39
Energy 37 58
As noted, on one of these, energy, a majority — 58 percent — disapproves of Bush's performance. And it's a potent issue, since six in 10 think the country is heading into an energy crisis. (That number has not grown since April, however, and fewer — four in 10 — think the country's in an energy crisis now.)
Belief that an energy crisis is coming is fairly stable across regions, although Westerners are somewhat more apt (at 46 percent) to think a crisis is here now. Bush's disapproval rating on energy is highest in the West, at 68 percent, but it reaches majority disapproval in all regions.
Bush's overall job approval rating also dips in the West, to 44 percent, though it's not much lower (49 percent) in the East. It's a good bit higher in the Midwest and South.
Bush's handling of energy policy:
West Midwest East South
Approve 28% 35 41 41
Disapprove 68 59 55 52
Overal job approval:
West Midwest East South
Approve 44% 56 49 63
Disapprove 49 39 46 31
On one specific energy policy, 56 percent (and again, majorities across regions) support federal caps on the price of electricity, something Bush opposes.
On other policy choices the public continues to show a broad preference for conservation over new power production; Bush's plan has been widely portrayed as focusing more on production. Eight in 10, for example, say they "strongly" support more energy conservation and higher fuel-efficiency in cars and trucks.
In terms of production, eight in 10 also strongly support the development of more solar and wind power. But strong support falls off sharply for some of the proposals Bush has made — more oil and gas drilling (49 percent), more coal mining (33 percent) and more nuclear power (29 percent).
Support "strongly"
More fuel-efficient vehicles 81%
More solar/wind power 80
More conservation by businesses 79
More conservation by consumers 78
More oil/gas drilling 49
More coal mining 33
More nuclear plants 29
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 31-June 3, 2001, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. |
