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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (4549)	6/9/2001 11:28:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Heinz, Absolutely no need to respond to this post as I am simply taking you story opening and following on with my science fiction. <<huge debt … eventual debt deflation … how big … debt mountain … buried under ... current one is the biggest EVER …absolute … relative … it's unprecedented. the Japanese made the same mistake … same will happen here, only it has the potential to get a whole lot worse, as there are no savings>> My #2 daydream sequence revolves around me stepping into a time machine and go forward in time to the US debt blowup. You have already noted the Japanese experience in your rational thought piece above. Oddly, our resident rib steak Pezz [EDIT: hi Pezz, you know, intuitively, that I use the term with adulation for the stunt motorcycle daredevils of this world as they leap across a pile of burning mad cows] also invoked Japan in his … Message 15919654 <<I might add that Japan which this thread is so fond of pointing to when it suits there purposes [so why can't I?] has had almost zero interest rates for quite some time whilst the economy continues to experience deflation … Monetarism is only a theory>> … … presumably arguing for Greenspan’s so far wreck-less reckless policy of “damn the inflation, full printing speed all around the globe”. So far, so good, as there is no “The Coming Financial Collapse of 2001” and no preceding blowup of the dollar, reversed capital flow and major financial accidents of any kind. I no longer have a copy of “I am turning Japanese” by DEVO in the music collection, but what could a Japanese guy have done back in 1989 in Japan, and what can we all do in 2001, for the safer bet of “The Coming Financial Collapse of 2002-2525”? [EDIT: yes, Maurice and Pezz, this is very bullish for you both, as even I have come to the conclusion that a financial accident may have been postponed by Greenspan, unless of course you take me as a contrary indicator, in which case you better sell with all the strength you used to use nursing while a newborn rib steak :0) ] For the Japanese in 1989, easy answer, “invested in the Nasdaq, gold, platinum, and emerging markets and get out of what is smoldering, ready to burn”. I am lazy and thus will not satisfy CB’s preference for hard numbers, only stating that … 1. Job losses are adding up in the locomotive country nytimes.com 2. Debt conditions are worsening in creditor nation markets.ft.com 3. Inflation is no longer trending down in the heart land nytimes.com 4. Strong Dollar policy is required to keep inflation not rising faster on the main street markets.ft.com 5. World’s expert consumers will have to slow down, removing yet another leg of the three-legged stool in hand-to-mouth economy nypostonline.com 6. Policy mistakes are propagating toxin throughout the land via energy uniontrib.com 7. Greenspan is creating still more poison … grantsinvestor.com\|-3342914515220024394/-1062731279/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-4089902320137563502/-1062731275/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-3342914515220024212&handler=CustEdHandler&a_id=61271 and without folks realizing the risks inherent therein … causing much waste forbes.com 8. Which is the only thing he can do … grantsinvestor.com\|-3342914515220024394/-1062731279/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-4089902320137563502/-1062731275/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-3342914515220024212&handler=CustEdHandler&a_id=61279 9. Manufacturing patterns are changing in the premier manufacturing nation nni.nikkei.co.jp 10. Software programming patterns can also change for IT space feer.com 11. Globalization is taking no prisoners news.ft.com 12. Simultaneity of downturn in all major economies is not coincidental msnbc.com 13. Competitive devaluation is rearing top of crown news.ft.com grantsinvestor.com\|-3342914515220024394/-1062731279/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-4089902320137563502/-1062731275/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-3342914515220024212&handler=CustEdHandler&a_id=61299 14. and so we wait patiently for the non-miracle that will surely happen, at some awful gut rearranging point in time grantsinvestor.com\|-3342914515220024394/-1062731279/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-4089902320137563502/-1062731275/5/7001/7001/7002/7002/-1\|-3342914515220024212&handler=CustEdHandler&a_id=61274 15. while we wait for other disasters to ferment … feer.com and interactive.wsj.com@0.cgi?jchen05/text/wsjie/data/SB991860296360303200.djm/&d2hconverter=display-d2h&NVP=&template=atlas-srch-searchrecent-nf.tmpl&form=atlas-srch-searchrecent-nf.html&from-and=AND&to-and=AND&sort=Article-Doc-Date+desc&qand=&bool_query=Cambodia&dbname=%26name1%3Ddbname%26name2%3Ddbname%26name3%3Ddbname%3Bwsjie%26named%3Ddbname%26period%3D%3A720&location=article&HI= 16. because some are unable to see the alternative path … forbes.com Now, come back to the present time, what do we do for brace positions? Not so easy, and yet each of us believes we know an answer. An answer, yes; part of the answer, possibly; the answer, possibly not. And so, I stay awake, and switch to daydream sequence #1, subject of another kind of post. Chugs, Jay P.S. And oh, did I forget to mention “brace, brace”