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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (43503)	6/8/2001 11:32:36 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, But this latest argument is ridiculous. Why would AMD cut over to Palomino instantaneously? Do we also expect Intel to be 100% P4 and no desktop PIII by now? When Intel introduces a new stepping, they change to it pretty rapidly. I think it was also the case for Coppermine-T (or whatever the stepping that actually shrunk the chip size). P4 is a completely new animal, with need for new infrastructure, with higher die size etc. The reason I am concerned is because 100% of AMD revenue comes from desktop, (0% from server and notebook), and we are now 3 months into this "shipping" stage - stage where AMD claims chips are being shipped to OEMs (and distributors), and we still have no clue if Palomino will be competitive in the Desktop segment (at least in the same ballpark MHz wise, ahead performance wise) My personal opinion is that there is less room to move on the upside if the desktop Palomino concerns are lessened than room on the downside if they are confirmed. What is your take on Palomino? Joe

To: kapkan4u who wrote (43503)	6/9/2001 1:56:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, <It is really amusing to see some AMD bulls that are out of the stock or sold calls trying to talk the stock into a lower re-entry point. > I have a feeling you are talking about me here. Just to clarify. I am not trying (even remotely) to talk the stock down. I don't have any delusions that I have the power to do so either. My opinion of AMD started souring since the KX133/KT133 transition and has gone south since then. <But this latest argument is ridiculous. Why would AMD cut over to Palomino instantaneously? > By the way, this is not exactly what I said either (especailly the "instantaneous" part). In my view it should take about 2 quarters to completely transition from Thunderbird to Palomino. (AMD has done something like this already with K74 and THunderbird). <Do we also expect Intel to be 100% P4 and no desktop PIII by now? Intel had much more time to ramp P4 than AMD to ramp Palomino.> This is an apples to oranges comparison. P4 is completely different beast from P3 in almost every respect including the chipset/motherboard infrastructure and is more than twice the die size of P3. Thunderbird and Palomino are much closer together and share similar infrstructure and have only about 8% die-size difference. The cutover from Thunderbird to Palomino should be about the same speed as previous two cutovers based on K7 core. If not, there is very likely a problem. Chuck