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To: TobagoJack who wrote (4759)6/11/2001 1:23:36 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Respond to of 74559
 
Jay: No, don't feel terrible.

Eat, Drink and Be Merry.

For tomorrow you may diet.

John



To: TobagoJack who wrote (4759)6/11/2001 8:52:08 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
>>An Asian stampede
The inevitable rise of China and India to rival today's biggest economies will produce global
upheaval, argues Javed Burki
Published: June 10 2001 19:14GMT | Last Updated: June 10 2001 19:21GMT

Economic historians have identified three "catch-up"
periods in the past century and a half during which the
line-up of world economies changed dramatically. The
world is about to experience a fourth, more traumatic
period.

Between 1870 and 1913, the US overtook Britain and
became the leading world economy. Between 1950 and
1973, Japan caught up with Europe and the US to
become the world's second largest economy. The third catch-up period, from
1975 to 1997, saw the narrowing of the gap between several tiger economies of
east Asia and the developed world.

The next phase is likely to shift the centre of the world economy from the Atlantic
ocean to the Asian mainland. It will change the composition of world output and
world trade, the way the world uses resources and the make-up of populations of
Europe and the US. It will almost certainly create severe tensions with today's
leading economies as they are challenged for global economic dominance.

The US and Europe currently account for about two-fifths of the global economic
output of $40,000bn. By 2025, the overall global figure may increase 2½ times, to
$100,000bn. China and India may account for about two-fifths of that. China, with a
gross domestic product of $25,000bn in 2025 - measured in terms of purchasing
power parity - will probably be the world's largest economy followed by the US at
$20,000bn and India, in third place, at about $13,000bn.

These projections are based on what I consider feasible, long-term rates of
growth; it is not beyond China's capacity to grow at 6 per cent a year for the next 25
years. After all, it has grown at a much faster rate over the past 25 years. India,
meanwhile, could sustain a rate of growth comparable with that of China over the
next 25 years. After an anaemic rate of growth of 3.5 per cent a year for more than
three decades after independence, India has a lot of catching up to do. Health
services and knowledge-based industries such as information technology will
contribute at least 1 percentage point to India's growth rate.

Yet with populations of more than 1bn each, these two countries will create
turbulence as their economies pick up speed. The east Asian tiger economies
moved fast but with stealth. The elephant economies of Asia, by contrast, will
create global commotion as they begin to stampede.

It is their size that will put them out in front of other economies. And it is their size
that will have a palpable effect on the global economy. A rate of growth of 6 per
cent a year, sustained over 2½ decades, will help to lift global growth from less
than 3 per cent a year during the past 25 years to more than 3.5 per cent for the
next 25 years.

Most of that increase will come from manufacturing, which has serious
implications. For a long time, the composition of world output has been changing
as the leading economies of North America, Europe and Japan have moved
towards the service sector and away from agriculture and manufacturing as the
main contributor to GDP. As Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal
Reserve, once put it, the world's output is becoming lighter, consuming less and
less material input.

That will change when China and India take the lead. For the first time in history,
two of the three leading economies will also be among the world's poorest
countries in terms of the incidence of absolute poverty. China and India will have a
combined population of nearly 3bn people by 2025, of which 500m may still be
living below the poverty line. They will require vast amounts of food and other
essentials. To meet their needs, both countries will continue to put an emphasis
on industry and agriculture. Instead of becoming lighter, the world's output will
start to get heavier.

The consequences for global warming are potentially devastating. That is why the
international community must ensure China and India use resources responsibly.
In that respect, US back-tracking on the Kyoto protocol is worrying.

There will also be big demographic changes. With rapidly growing economies,
China and India will have the resources to invest in educating and training
millions of their citizens. They will thus have a sufficiently large supply of people
with the type of skills needed by the knowledge-based industries of the US and
Europe. Meanwhile, the United Nations has predicted that by the year 2010 Japan
and all countries in Europe will begin to see declines in their populations. This
will create an overwhelming demand for trained workers from abroad, which India
and China will be able to supply in abundance.

What we are about to witness, therefore, is not simply another period of catch-up.
Once the elephant economies begin to move fast they will redefine the global
economy as we know it. <<

news.ft.com



To: TobagoJack who wrote (4759)6/11/2001 9:14:39 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
This may be old news, in light of the WTO agreement announced, but I think it gives an interesting insight into the issues - free trade vs. protectionism vs. dumping.

>>China's Lucrative Export Business Takes Hit as U.S. Tightens Borders

By PETER WONACOTT
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

BEIJING -- What do garlic and gift boxes, crawfish tails and paintbrushes have
in common? Not much until China began exporting them to the U.S., prompting
allegations that it is dumping these and a long list of other products below
fair-market value.

As the U.S. moves to protect domestic industries, illustrated by steps the Bush
administration took this week to restrict foreign steel imports, exporters around
the world may feel a pinch. But no country has been slapped as China has
recently with U.S. antidumping investigations.

In the past several months, China has been named
in five separate antidumping suits filed by U.S.
manufacturers. U.S. makers of folding chairs, steel
pipe and car windshields, among others, charge
their Chinese competitors with shredding markets
by undercutting prices and poaching distributors.
In response, they've demanded punitive tariffs --
often double what is being asked of other
countries named in the investigations, according to documents filed with the
U.S. International Trade Commission.

Targeting China for cheap imports is nothing new. According to U.S. trade
figures, the U.S. launched 68 antidumping investigations against China between
1980 and 1999, giving China about 7% of the total. In June last year, the U.S.
Department of Commerce established a spot on its Web site for "Monitoring of
Imports from the PRC," the only country to be so singled out. A senior U.S.
trade official notes the number of cases filed this year against China appears
normal so far, and won't necessarily result in punitive trade measures unless
Chinese products are shown to have been dumped at prices below what it
should cost to make them. U.S. companies also need to prove they have been
hurt by such imports before punitive duties are imposed under a 1930 Tariff
Act Law.

The most recent dumping disputes go to the core of U.S.-China trade tensions.
As trade between the two countries grows, U.S. companies have put pressure
on Washington to shield them from China's low-cost exporters. China's export
heft has been magnified lately by a slowing U.S. economy and the global trend
favoring cheap imports over domestically produced goods. As a result, trade
frictions are expected to increase, putting extra pressure on a U.S.-China
relationship burdened by a raft of other problems.

"People always turn to Chinese companies when there's political tension," says
James Zimmerman, a lawyer representing a group of Chinese manufacturers in
the antidumping cases. "There's so much mystery behind their cost structures
that there's going to be suspicion."

It's been Mr. Zimmerman's job to make sure Chinese companies aren't barred
from the U.S. market. In the past few years, Chinese concerns started hiring
U.S. lawyers to shepherd them through dumping investigations, but to little
avail, according to Zhang Yuqing, a U.S. trained-attorney who heads the law
and treaty department of China's foreign trade ministry. "We've spent millions
on U.S. attorneys, but still no single industry or product in China is considered
market-based," he says. "It's unrealistic, unreasonable and unbelievable."

Mr. Zhang says he's pessimistic that China can do much to shrink the number of
U.S. antidumping cases. Although China is engaged in dumping spats with other
countries, Mr. Zhang claims the U.S. has been the least flexible in adjusting how
it determines a nebulous concept: "the nonmarket economy."

Under U.S. evaluation methods, huge swaths of China's economy are still
considered state-run. Complicating the picture is the swelling number of
Chinese closely held companies, as well as farmers who grow their own cash
crops, powering an export boom. In addition, in important industrial sectors
such as steel, Chinese labor is roughly 30 times cheaper than labor in U.S.,
handing China's exports a huge advantage that Beijing believes has spurred the
U.S. and other countries to find ways to close their doors.

Chinese trade officials are especially miffed about garlic. "You can't find one
finger of government control, but our farmers can't export a clove of garlic,"
Mr. Zhang says. Saddled with U.S. tariffs in excess of 300% since 1994,
Chinese garlic effectively has been locked out of a lucrative market.

U.S. officials counter that the Chinese government still fixes most prices for
important raw materials such as energy and transportation. Officials add that
they also factor in capitalist elements of China's economy in the final
determination of production costs. But in the absence of verifiable information,
the U.S. often turns to "surrogate" countries like India and Indonesia to
compare costs, a practice China has criticized for distorting results.

And even if Chinese manufacturers launch a strong defense against dumping
allegations, they have to hope the U.S. government doesn't find financial injury
to its U.S. competitors.

For companies like Meco Corp., a maker of folding metal chairs and tables, the
harm has been obvious, says the president of the Greeneville, Tenn., firm. As its
biggest customers deserted Meco for low-cost Chinese imports, sales and
profits plunged, prompting the first layoffs in more than a decade, according to
Allan J. Reitzer. After it laid off 175 employees in February and March, Meco
filed an antidumping petition against China at the end of April.

"There has been a steady buildup of Chinese exports coming into our market,
followed by a more recent surge," says Mr. Reitzer. "And there appears to be
no signs of its stopping."<<

interactive.wsj.com