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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (190)	6/11/2001 4:42:27 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

Tantalum capacitor shortages to ease—in about six months BY JAMES CARBONE (11-16-00) manufacturing.net Booming demand for cellular telephones is driving tantalum capacitor demand and is the main reason for shortages. However, some cell phone makers have reduced their forecasts, indicating slowing demand for cell phones which could help ease the tantalum capacitor supply crunch. But Smith doesn't think it will have much impact on tantalum capacitor supply. "The publicity that wireless phone manufacturers had reduced their forecast was a big concern that the market was collapsing," he says. But what people don't realize is that they reduced their forecast from 500 million to 425 million cell phones. In 1999, they produced 283 million cell phones. Going from 283 million to 425 is still a major increase. "The huge growth in demand in recent years caught tantalum cap manufacturers by surprise. "In 1996-1997, there were only about 100 million cell phones produced in the world. From 100 to 300 million to over 400 million is exponential growth," says Smith. PCs need tantalums, too Smith says demand from the computer industry for tantalums is also on the rise because microprocessor speeds are increasing. "Computers are the second biggest consumer of tantalum capacitors," he says. "When you had a 486 microprocessor, there were only about 120 passive components on the board. With Pentium, Pentium II and III, in every version it requires more passive components including tantalum capacitors," he says. A Pentium II uses about 450 passive components, including 15 to 20 tantalum capacitors. A 486 processor would have used about four or five tantalum capacitors, says Smith.